Combined impact of the cold vortex and atmospheric blocking on cold outbreaks over East Asia and the potential for short-range prediction of such occurrences
Abstract This study explores the consequences of independent and combined effects of blockings on the northeast Asian cold vortex (NACV), and corresponding cold outbreaks over East Asia (EA) during boreal winters of 1979–2019. The results show that the development of NACV is closely associated with...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8362 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8362 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8362/pdf |
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ac8362 2024-09-09T19:27:05+00:00 Combined impact of the cold vortex and atmospheric blocking on cold outbreaks over East Asia and the potential for short-range prediction of such occurrences Zhuo, Wenqin Yao, Yao Luo, Dehai Simmonds, Ian Huang, Fei Australian Research Council Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Research Program National Natural Science Foundation of China 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8362 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8362 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8362/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 17, issue 8, page 084037 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2022 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8362 2024-08-12T04:14:31Z Abstract This study explores the consequences of independent and combined effects of blockings on the northeast Asian cold vortex (NACV), and corresponding cold outbreaks over East Asia (EA) during boreal winters of 1979–2019. The results show that the development of NACV is closely associated with blocking over the Ural Mountains (UB) upstream and eastern Siberia to mid-North Pacific (SPB) downstream. Here we focus on the initial periods before the peak day of NACV events. It is found that the strong NACV events are usually induced by the initial-UB situation, leading to the greatest temperature drop in EA. While the weak NACV events may be associated with the initial-SPB condition, which can bring less dramatic outbreaks but longer duration, owing to the Ural ridge that formed by the westward shift of SPB. Furthermore, an SPB-UB relay effect is discovered against the background of a negative Arctic Oscillation pattern. In such cases, UB is formed by the westward shift of downstream SPB after the occurrence of NACV, forming a relay effect that motivates the second NACV process, hence prolonging the duration of cold anomalies in EA. These findings highlight the importance of the combined effect of blockings and NACV in the intraseasonal time scale. Compared to the ‘Initial-UB’ and ‘Initial-SPB’ situation, this ‘SPB-UB relay’ scenario can produce longer-lasting cold extreme in EA, which may be indicative of the short-term weather forecasting of such extreme cold weather. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Siberia IOP Publishing Arctic Pacific Environmental Research Letters 17 8 084037 |
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Abstract This study explores the consequences of independent and combined effects of blockings on the northeast Asian cold vortex (NACV), and corresponding cold outbreaks over East Asia (EA) during boreal winters of 1979–2019. The results show that the development of NACV is closely associated with blocking over the Ural Mountains (UB) upstream and eastern Siberia to mid-North Pacific (SPB) downstream. Here we focus on the initial periods before the peak day of NACV events. It is found that the strong NACV events are usually induced by the initial-UB situation, leading to the greatest temperature drop in EA. While the weak NACV events may be associated with the initial-SPB condition, which can bring less dramatic outbreaks but longer duration, owing to the Ural ridge that formed by the westward shift of SPB. Furthermore, an SPB-UB relay effect is discovered against the background of a negative Arctic Oscillation pattern. In such cases, UB is formed by the westward shift of downstream SPB after the occurrence of NACV, forming a relay effect that motivates the second NACV process, hence prolonging the duration of cold anomalies in EA. These findings highlight the importance of the combined effect of blockings and NACV in the intraseasonal time scale. Compared to the ‘Initial-UB’ and ‘Initial-SPB’ situation, this ‘SPB-UB relay’ scenario can produce longer-lasting cold extreme in EA, which may be indicative of the short-term weather forecasting of such extreme cold weather. |
author2 |
Australian Research Council Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Research Program National Natural Science Foundation of China |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zhuo, Wenqin Yao, Yao Luo, Dehai Simmonds, Ian Huang, Fei |
spellingShingle |
Zhuo, Wenqin Yao, Yao Luo, Dehai Simmonds, Ian Huang, Fei Combined impact of the cold vortex and atmospheric blocking on cold outbreaks over East Asia and the potential for short-range prediction of such occurrences |
author_facet |
Zhuo, Wenqin Yao, Yao Luo, Dehai Simmonds, Ian Huang, Fei |
author_sort |
Zhuo, Wenqin |
title |
Combined impact of the cold vortex and atmospheric blocking on cold outbreaks over East Asia and the potential for short-range prediction of such occurrences |
title_short |
Combined impact of the cold vortex and atmospheric blocking on cold outbreaks over East Asia and the potential for short-range prediction of such occurrences |
title_full |
Combined impact of the cold vortex and atmospheric blocking on cold outbreaks over East Asia and the potential for short-range prediction of such occurrences |
title_fullStr |
Combined impact of the cold vortex and atmospheric blocking on cold outbreaks over East Asia and the potential for short-range prediction of such occurrences |
title_full_unstemmed |
Combined impact of the cold vortex and atmospheric blocking on cold outbreaks over East Asia and the potential for short-range prediction of such occurrences |
title_sort |
combined impact of the cold vortex and atmospheric blocking on cold outbreaks over east asia and the potential for short-range prediction of such occurrences |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8362 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8362 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8362/pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Siberia |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 17, issue 8, page 084037 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8362 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
084037 |
_version_ |
1809896582282215424 |