Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period
Abstract Forecasting Antarctic atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice conditions on subseasonal to seasonal scales remains a major challenge. During both the freezing and melting seasons current operational ensemble forecasting systems show a systematic overestimation of the Antarctic sea-ice edge locati...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66/pdf |
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66 2024-06-02T07:57:51+00:00 Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period Cerovečki, Ivana Sun, Rui Bromwich, David H Zou, Xun Mazloff, Matthew R Wang, Sheng-Hung Division of Antarctic Sciences NASA KAUST NSF National Aeronautics and Space Administration 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 17, issue 8, page 084008 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2022 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66 2024-05-07T14:04:15Z Abstract Forecasting Antarctic atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice conditions on subseasonal to seasonal scales remains a major challenge. During both the freezing and melting seasons current operational ensemble forecasting systems show a systematic overestimation of the Antarctic sea-ice edge location. The skill of sea ice cover prediction is closely related to the accuracy of cloud representation in models, as the two are strongly coupled by cloud radiative forcing. In particular, surface downward longwave radiation (DLW) deficits appear to be a common shortcoming in atmospheric models over the Southern Ocean. For example, a recent comparison of ECMWF reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5) global reanalysis with the observations from McMurdo Station revealed a year-round deficit in DLW of approximately 50 Wm −2 in marine air masses due to model shortages in supercooled cloud liquid water. A comparison with the surface DLW radiation observations from the Ocean Observatories Initiative mooring in the South Pacific at 54.08° S, 89.67° W, for the time period January 2016–November 2018, confirms approximately 20 Wm −2 deficit in DLW in ERA5 well north of the sea-ice edge. Using a regional ocean model, we show that when DLW is artificially increased by 50 Wm −2 in the simulation driven by ERA5 atmospheric forcing, the predicted sea ice growth agrees much better with the observations. A wide variety of sensitivity tests show that the anomalously large, predicted sea-ice extent is not due to limitations in the ocean model and that by implication the cause resides with the atmospheric forcing. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean IOP Publishing Antarctic McMurdo Station ENVELOPE(166.667,166.667,-77.850,-77.850) Pacific Southern Ocean The Antarctic Environmental Research Letters 17 8 084008 |
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Abstract Forecasting Antarctic atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice conditions on subseasonal to seasonal scales remains a major challenge. During both the freezing and melting seasons current operational ensemble forecasting systems show a systematic overestimation of the Antarctic sea-ice edge location. The skill of sea ice cover prediction is closely related to the accuracy of cloud representation in models, as the two are strongly coupled by cloud radiative forcing. In particular, surface downward longwave radiation (DLW) deficits appear to be a common shortcoming in atmospheric models over the Southern Ocean. For example, a recent comparison of ECMWF reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5) global reanalysis with the observations from McMurdo Station revealed a year-round deficit in DLW of approximately 50 Wm −2 in marine air masses due to model shortages in supercooled cloud liquid water. A comparison with the surface DLW radiation observations from the Ocean Observatories Initiative mooring in the South Pacific at 54.08° S, 89.67° W, for the time period January 2016–November 2018, confirms approximately 20 Wm −2 deficit in DLW in ERA5 well north of the sea-ice edge. Using a regional ocean model, we show that when DLW is artificially increased by 50 Wm −2 in the simulation driven by ERA5 atmospheric forcing, the predicted sea ice growth agrees much better with the observations. A wide variety of sensitivity tests show that the anomalously large, predicted sea-ice extent is not due to limitations in the ocean model and that by implication the cause resides with the atmospheric forcing. |
author2 |
Division of Antarctic Sciences NASA KAUST NSF National Aeronautics and Space Administration |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cerovečki, Ivana Sun, Rui Bromwich, David H Zou, Xun Mazloff, Matthew R Wang, Sheng-Hung |
spellingShingle |
Cerovečki, Ivana Sun, Rui Bromwich, David H Zou, Xun Mazloff, Matthew R Wang, Sheng-Hung Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period |
author_facet |
Cerovečki, Ivana Sun, Rui Bromwich, David H Zou, Xun Mazloff, Matthew R Wang, Sheng-Hung |
author_sort |
Cerovečki, Ivana |
title |
Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period |
title_short |
Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period |
title_full |
Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period |
title_fullStr |
Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period |
title_sort |
impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66/pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(166.667,166.667,-77.850,-77.850) |
geographic |
Antarctic McMurdo Station Pacific Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic McMurdo Station Pacific Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 17, issue 8, page 084008 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
084008 |
_version_ |
1800741060787306496 |