The roles of global warming and Arctic Oscillation in the winter 2020 extremes in East Asia
Abstract The 2019/20 winter was extremely warm globally and in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. The main cause of climate extremes particularly in East Asia, was the extreme positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) event superimposed on steady global warming. The negligible trend in the AO over the pre...
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ac7061 2024-06-23T07:50:16+00:00 The roles of global warming and Arctic Oscillation in the winter 2020 extremes in East Asia Kim, So-Hee Kryjov, Vladimir N Ahn, Joong-Bae Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7061 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7061 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7061/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 17, issue 6, page 065010 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2022 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7061 2024-06-10T04:11:33Z Abstract The 2019/20 winter was extremely warm globally and in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. The main cause of climate extremes particularly in East Asia, was the extreme positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) event superimposed on steady global warming. The negligible trend in the AO over the preceding 41 years makes it possible to distinguish the roles of AO and global warming in the observed extremes. We estimate and compare contributions to January–March 2020 climate extremes by the AO and global warming represented by local temperature trends using the ERA5 reanalysis data. Based on results from a preliminary study, we estimate the contribution by global warming using linear regression while that by the AO using cubic regression, which is more restrained for the high AO index values than linear. The results show that the temperature extremes were mainly caused by the extreme positive AO event which accounts for approximately 3/4 of the observed temperature anomalies in northern East Asia and 2/3 in eastern East Asia. In southern East Asia, the AO contributes negligibly and positive temperature anomalies are related to global warming and local and regional impacts, particularly extreme sea surface temperature, enhance south-westerlies and local radiative forcing. General conclusion is that the observed strong positive temperature anomalies including extreme anomalies over East Asia could have been achieved only as a combined effect of the extreme positive AO event and global warming. Quantification of the roles of the AO and global warming in climate extremes helps to estimate future anomalies caused by extreme AO events as well as assess uncertainties in climate model projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Global warming IOP Publishing Arctic Environmental Research Letters 17 6 065010 |
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Abstract The 2019/20 winter was extremely warm globally and in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. The main cause of climate extremes particularly in East Asia, was the extreme positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) event superimposed on steady global warming. The negligible trend in the AO over the preceding 41 years makes it possible to distinguish the roles of AO and global warming in the observed extremes. We estimate and compare contributions to January–March 2020 climate extremes by the AO and global warming represented by local temperature trends using the ERA5 reanalysis data. Based on results from a preliminary study, we estimate the contribution by global warming using linear regression while that by the AO using cubic regression, which is more restrained for the high AO index values than linear. The results show that the temperature extremes were mainly caused by the extreme positive AO event which accounts for approximately 3/4 of the observed temperature anomalies in northern East Asia and 2/3 in eastern East Asia. In southern East Asia, the AO contributes negligibly and positive temperature anomalies are related to global warming and local and regional impacts, particularly extreme sea surface temperature, enhance south-westerlies and local radiative forcing. General conclusion is that the observed strong positive temperature anomalies including extreme anomalies over East Asia could have been achieved only as a combined effect of the extreme positive AO event and global warming. Quantification of the roles of the AO and global warming in climate extremes helps to estimate future anomalies caused by extreme AO events as well as assess uncertainties in climate model projections. |
author2 |
Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kim, So-Hee Kryjov, Vladimir N Ahn, Joong-Bae |
spellingShingle |
Kim, So-Hee Kryjov, Vladimir N Ahn, Joong-Bae The roles of global warming and Arctic Oscillation in the winter 2020 extremes in East Asia |
author_facet |
Kim, So-Hee Kryjov, Vladimir N Ahn, Joong-Bae |
author_sort |
Kim, So-Hee |
title |
The roles of global warming and Arctic Oscillation in the winter 2020 extremes in East Asia |
title_short |
The roles of global warming and Arctic Oscillation in the winter 2020 extremes in East Asia |
title_full |
The roles of global warming and Arctic Oscillation in the winter 2020 extremes in East Asia |
title_fullStr |
The roles of global warming and Arctic Oscillation in the winter 2020 extremes in East Asia |
title_full_unstemmed |
The roles of global warming and Arctic Oscillation in the winter 2020 extremes in East Asia |
title_sort |
roles of global warming and arctic oscillation in the winter 2020 extremes in east asia |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7061 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7061 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7061/pdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Global warming |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 17, issue 6, page 065010 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7061 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
065010 |
_version_ |
1802641129020063744 |