Future increases in lightning ignition efficiency and wildfire occurrence expected from drier fuels in boreal forest ecosystems of western North America
Abstract Lightning-induced fire is the primary disturbance agent in boreal forests. Recent large fire years have been linked to anomalously high numbers of lightning-caused fire starts, yet the mechanisms regulating the probability of lightning ignition remain uncertain and limit our ability to proj...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6311 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6311 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6311/pdf |
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ac6311 2024-10-13T14:09:53+00:00 Future increases in lightning ignition efficiency and wildfire occurrence expected from drier fuels in boreal forest ecosystems of western North America Hessilt, Thomas D Abatzoglou, John T Chen, Yang Randerson, James T Scholten, Rebecca C van der Werf, Guido Veraverbeke, Sander Netherlands Earth System Science Centre 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6311 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6311 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6311/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 17, issue 5, page 054008 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2022 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6311 2024-09-17T04:17:53Z Abstract Lightning-induced fire is the primary disturbance agent in boreal forests. Recent large fire years have been linked to anomalously high numbers of lightning-caused fire starts, yet the mechanisms regulating the probability of lightning ignition remain uncertain and limit our ability to project future changes. Here, we investigated the influence of lightning properties, landscape characteristics, and fire weather on lightning ignition efficiency—the likelihood that a lightning strike starts a fire—in Alaska, United States of America, and Northwest Territories, Canada, between 2001 and 2018. We found that short-term fuel drying associated with fire weather was the main driver of lightning ignition efficiency. Lightning was also more likely to ignite a wildfire in denser, evergreen forest areas. Under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, we predicted that changes in vegetation and fire weather increase lightning ignition efficiency by 14 ± 9% in Alaska and 31 ± 28% in the Northwest Territories per 1 °C warming by end-of-century. The increases in lightning ignition efficiency, together with a projected doubling of lightning strikes, result in a 39%–65% increase in lightning-caused fire occurrence per 1 °C warming. This implies that years with many fires will occur more frequently in the future, thereby accelerating carbon losses from boreal forest ecosystems. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northwest Territories Alaska IOP Publishing Northwest Territories Canada Environmental Research Letters 17 5 054008 |
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IOP Publishing |
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Abstract Lightning-induced fire is the primary disturbance agent in boreal forests. Recent large fire years have been linked to anomalously high numbers of lightning-caused fire starts, yet the mechanisms regulating the probability of lightning ignition remain uncertain and limit our ability to project future changes. Here, we investigated the influence of lightning properties, landscape characteristics, and fire weather on lightning ignition efficiency—the likelihood that a lightning strike starts a fire—in Alaska, United States of America, and Northwest Territories, Canada, between 2001 and 2018. We found that short-term fuel drying associated with fire weather was the main driver of lightning ignition efficiency. Lightning was also more likely to ignite a wildfire in denser, evergreen forest areas. Under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, we predicted that changes in vegetation and fire weather increase lightning ignition efficiency by 14 ± 9% in Alaska and 31 ± 28% in the Northwest Territories per 1 °C warming by end-of-century. The increases in lightning ignition efficiency, together with a projected doubling of lightning strikes, result in a 39%–65% increase in lightning-caused fire occurrence per 1 °C warming. This implies that years with many fires will occur more frequently in the future, thereby accelerating carbon losses from boreal forest ecosystems. |
author2 |
Netherlands Earth System Science Centre |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hessilt, Thomas D Abatzoglou, John T Chen, Yang Randerson, James T Scholten, Rebecca C van der Werf, Guido Veraverbeke, Sander |
spellingShingle |
Hessilt, Thomas D Abatzoglou, John T Chen, Yang Randerson, James T Scholten, Rebecca C van der Werf, Guido Veraverbeke, Sander Future increases in lightning ignition efficiency and wildfire occurrence expected from drier fuels in boreal forest ecosystems of western North America |
author_facet |
Hessilt, Thomas D Abatzoglou, John T Chen, Yang Randerson, James T Scholten, Rebecca C van der Werf, Guido Veraverbeke, Sander |
author_sort |
Hessilt, Thomas D |
title |
Future increases in lightning ignition efficiency and wildfire occurrence expected from drier fuels in boreal forest ecosystems of western North America |
title_short |
Future increases in lightning ignition efficiency and wildfire occurrence expected from drier fuels in boreal forest ecosystems of western North America |
title_full |
Future increases in lightning ignition efficiency and wildfire occurrence expected from drier fuels in boreal forest ecosystems of western North America |
title_fullStr |
Future increases in lightning ignition efficiency and wildfire occurrence expected from drier fuels in boreal forest ecosystems of western North America |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future increases in lightning ignition efficiency and wildfire occurrence expected from drier fuels in boreal forest ecosystems of western North America |
title_sort |
future increases in lightning ignition efficiency and wildfire occurrence expected from drier fuels in boreal forest ecosystems of western north america |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6311 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6311 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6311/pdf |
geographic |
Northwest Territories Canada |
geographic_facet |
Northwest Territories Canada |
genre |
Northwest Territories Alaska |
genre_facet |
Northwest Territories Alaska |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 17, issue 5, page 054008 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6311 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
054008 |
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1812816944571613184 |