Atlantic multidecadal variability and the implications for North European precipitation
Abstract The North Atlantic exhibits temperature variations on multidecadal time scales, summarized as the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). The AMV plays an essential role for regional climate and is a key driver of the low-frequency variability in Northern Europe. This study analyzed the in...
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ac5ca1 2024-06-02T08:11:13+00:00 Atlantic multidecadal variability and the implications for North European precipitation Börgel, Florian Meier, H E Markus Gröger, Matthias Rhein, Monika Dutheil, Cyril Kaiser, Jan Moritz 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5ca1 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5ca1 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5ca1/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 17, issue 4, page 044040 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2022 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5ca1 2024-05-07T13:58:04Z Abstract The North Atlantic exhibits temperature variations on multidecadal time scales, summarized as the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). The AMV plays an essential role for regional climate and is a key driver of the low-frequency variability in Northern Europe. This study analyzed the interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) control runs. The results showed that the physical mechanisms underlying decadal or longer time scales differ among CMIP6 models, which allowed them to be sorted into two clusters. For the first cluster, a significant coherence between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the AMV was found. Further, it showed a strong negative NAO response and decreasing precipitation over Northern Europe. In contrast, the second cluster showed no significant coherence between NAO and AMV. This non-coherent cluster developed a low-pressure anomaly in the subpolar gyre and showed increasing precipitation over Europe. Differences in the northward extension of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) between the two clusters were identified and linked to the different atmospheric responses. Our findings have important implications for European climate, since predictions of an increase or decrease in precipitation over Northern Europe will be model-dependent. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation IOP Publishing Environmental Research Letters 17 4 044040 |
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Abstract The North Atlantic exhibits temperature variations on multidecadal time scales, summarized as the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). The AMV plays an essential role for regional climate and is a key driver of the low-frequency variability in Northern Europe. This study analyzed the interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) control runs. The results showed that the physical mechanisms underlying decadal or longer time scales differ among CMIP6 models, which allowed them to be sorted into two clusters. For the first cluster, a significant coherence between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the AMV was found. Further, it showed a strong negative NAO response and decreasing precipitation over Northern Europe. In contrast, the second cluster showed no significant coherence between NAO and AMV. This non-coherent cluster developed a low-pressure anomaly in the subpolar gyre and showed increasing precipitation over Europe. Differences in the northward extension of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) between the two clusters were identified and linked to the different atmospheric responses. Our findings have important implications for European climate, since predictions of an increase or decrease in precipitation over Northern Europe will be model-dependent. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Börgel, Florian Meier, H E Markus Gröger, Matthias Rhein, Monika Dutheil, Cyril Kaiser, Jan Moritz |
spellingShingle |
Börgel, Florian Meier, H E Markus Gröger, Matthias Rhein, Monika Dutheil, Cyril Kaiser, Jan Moritz Atlantic multidecadal variability and the implications for North European precipitation |
author_facet |
Börgel, Florian Meier, H E Markus Gröger, Matthias Rhein, Monika Dutheil, Cyril Kaiser, Jan Moritz |
author_sort |
Börgel, Florian |
title |
Atlantic multidecadal variability and the implications for North European precipitation |
title_short |
Atlantic multidecadal variability and the implications for North European precipitation |
title_full |
Atlantic multidecadal variability and the implications for North European precipitation |
title_fullStr |
Atlantic multidecadal variability and the implications for North European precipitation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Atlantic multidecadal variability and the implications for North European precipitation |
title_sort |
atlantic multidecadal variability and the implications for north european precipitation |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5ca1 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5ca1 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5ca1/pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 17, issue 4, page 044040 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5ca1 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
044040 |
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1800757274275217408 |