Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification
Abstract The ocean provides a major sink for anthropogenic heat and carbon. This sink results in ocean changes through the dual stressors of warming and acidification which can negatively impact the health of the marine ecosystem. Projecting the ocean’s future uptake is essential to understand and a...
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57 2024-06-02T08:14:49+00:00 Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification Mortenson, Eric Lenton, Andrew Shadwick, Elizabeth H Trull, Thomas W Chamberlain, Matthew A Zhang, Xuebin 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 16, issue 12, page 124063 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2021 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57 2024-05-07T13:53:38Z Abstract The ocean provides a major sink for anthropogenic heat and carbon. This sink results in ocean changes through the dual stressors of warming and acidification which can negatively impact the health of the marine ecosystem. Projecting the ocean’s future uptake is essential to understand and adapt to further climate change and its impact on the ocean. Historical ocean uptake of heat and CO 2 are tightly correlated, but here we show the trajectories diverge over the 21st century. This divergence occurs regionally, increasing over time, resulting from the unique combination of physical and chemical drivers. We explored this relationship using a high-resolution ocean model and a ‘business as usual’ CO 2 emission pathway, and demonstrate that the regional variability in the carbon-to-heat uptake ratios is more pronounced than for the subsequent carbon-to-heat storage (change in inventory) ratios, with a range of a factor of 30 (6) in heat-to-carbon uptake (storage) ratios among the defined regions. The regional differences in heat and carbon trajectories result in coherent regional patterns for sea surface warming and acidification by the end of this century. Relative to the mean global change (MGC) at the sea surface of 2.55 °C warming and a decrease of 0.32 in pH, the North Pacific will exceed the MGC for both warming and acidification, the Southern Ocean for acidification only, and the tropics and midlatitude northern hemisphere will exceed MGC only for warming. Regionally, mapping the ocean warming and acidification informs where the marine environment will experience larger changes in one or both. Globally, the projected ocean uptake of anthropogenic heat and carbon informs the degree to which the ocean can continue to serve as a sink for both into the future. Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean IOP Publishing Pacific Southern Ocean Environmental Research Letters 16 12 124063 |
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Abstract The ocean provides a major sink for anthropogenic heat and carbon. This sink results in ocean changes through the dual stressors of warming and acidification which can negatively impact the health of the marine ecosystem. Projecting the ocean’s future uptake is essential to understand and adapt to further climate change and its impact on the ocean. Historical ocean uptake of heat and CO 2 are tightly correlated, but here we show the trajectories diverge over the 21st century. This divergence occurs regionally, increasing over time, resulting from the unique combination of physical and chemical drivers. We explored this relationship using a high-resolution ocean model and a ‘business as usual’ CO 2 emission pathway, and demonstrate that the regional variability in the carbon-to-heat uptake ratios is more pronounced than for the subsequent carbon-to-heat storage (change in inventory) ratios, with a range of a factor of 30 (6) in heat-to-carbon uptake (storage) ratios among the defined regions. The regional differences in heat and carbon trajectories result in coherent regional patterns for sea surface warming and acidification by the end of this century. Relative to the mean global change (MGC) at the sea surface of 2.55 °C warming and a decrease of 0.32 in pH, the North Pacific will exceed the MGC for both warming and acidification, the Southern Ocean for acidification only, and the tropics and midlatitude northern hemisphere will exceed MGC only for warming. Regionally, mapping the ocean warming and acidification informs where the marine environment will experience larger changes in one or both. Globally, the projected ocean uptake of anthropogenic heat and carbon informs the degree to which the ocean can continue to serve as a sink for both into the future. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mortenson, Eric Lenton, Andrew Shadwick, Elizabeth H Trull, Thomas W Chamberlain, Matthew A Zhang, Xuebin |
spellingShingle |
Mortenson, Eric Lenton, Andrew Shadwick, Elizabeth H Trull, Thomas W Chamberlain, Matthew A Zhang, Xuebin Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
author_facet |
Mortenson, Eric Lenton, Andrew Shadwick, Elizabeth H Trull, Thomas W Chamberlain, Matthew A Zhang, Xuebin |
author_sort |
Mortenson, Eric |
title |
Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
title_short |
Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
title_full |
Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
title_fullStr |
Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
title_full_unstemmed |
Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
title_sort |
divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57/pdf |
geographic |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 16, issue 12, page 124063 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
124063 |
_version_ |
1800738804253851648 |