Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues
Abstract Predicting regional climate variability is a key goal of initialised decadal predictions and the North Atlantic has been a major focus due to its high level of predictability and potential impact on European climate. These predictions often focus on decadal variability in sea surface temper...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Other Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
IOP Publishing
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb/pdf |
id |
crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb 2024-06-23T07:54:56+00:00 Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues Menary, Matthew B Mignot, Juliette Robson, Jon H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions Agence Nationale de la Recherche Natural Environment Research Council Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 16, issue 6, page 064090 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2021 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb 2024-05-27T13:02:59Z Abstract Predicting regional climate variability is a key goal of initialised decadal predictions and the North Atlantic has been a major focus due to its high level of predictability and potential impact on European climate. These predictions often focus on decadal variability in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NA SPG). In order to understand the value of initialisation, and justify the high costs of such systems, predictions are routinely measured against technologically simpler benchmarks. Here, we present a new model-analogue benchmark that aims to leverage the latent information in uninitialised climate model simulations to make decadal predictions of NA SPG SSTs. This system searches through more than one hundred thousand simulated years in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archives and yields skilful predictions in its target region comparable to initialised systems. Analysis of the underlying behaviour of the system suggests the origins of this skill are physically plausible. Such a system can provide a useful benchmark for initialised systems within the NA SPG and also suggests that the limits in initialised decadal prediction skill in this region have not yet been reached. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic IOP Publishing Environmental Research Letters 16 6 064090 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
IOP Publishing |
op_collection_id |
crioppubl |
language |
unknown |
description |
Abstract Predicting regional climate variability is a key goal of initialised decadal predictions and the North Atlantic has been a major focus due to its high level of predictability and potential impact on European climate. These predictions often focus on decadal variability in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NA SPG). In order to understand the value of initialisation, and justify the high costs of such systems, predictions are routinely measured against technologically simpler benchmarks. Here, we present a new model-analogue benchmark that aims to leverage the latent information in uninitialised climate model simulations to make decadal predictions of NA SPG SSTs. This system searches through more than one hundred thousand simulated years in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archives and yields skilful predictions in its target region comparable to initialised systems. Analysis of the underlying behaviour of the system suggests the origins of this skill are physically plausible. Such a system can provide a useful benchmark for initialised systems within the NA SPG and also suggests that the limits in initialised decadal prediction skill in this region have not yet been reached. |
author2 |
H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions Agence Nationale de la Recherche Natural Environment Research Council Horizon 2020 Framework Programme |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Menary, Matthew B Mignot, Juliette Robson, Jon |
spellingShingle |
Menary, Matthew B Mignot, Juliette Robson, Jon Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
author_facet |
Menary, Matthew B Mignot, Juliette Robson, Jon |
author_sort |
Menary, Matthew B |
title |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_short |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_full |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_fullStr |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_sort |
skilful decadal predictions of subpolar north atlantic ssts using cmip model-analogues |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb/pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 16, issue 6, page 064090 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
064090 |
_version_ |
1802647280213295104 |