Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model
Abstract Arctic cyclones, as a prevalent feature in the coupled dynamics of the Arctic climate system, have large impacts on the atmospheric transport of heat and moisture and deformation and drifting of sea ice. Previous studies based on historical and future simulations with climate models suggest...
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ac0566 2024-09-15T17:35:49+00:00 Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model Akperov, Mirseid Zhang, Wenxin Miller, Paul A Mokhov, Igor I Semenov, Vladimir A Matthes, Heidrun Smith, Benjamin Rinke, Annette Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas Russian Foundation for Basic Research H2020 Environment Swedish National Space Agency Russian Science Foundation 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0566 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0566 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0566/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 16, issue 6, page 064076 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2021 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0566 2024-07-01T04:13:01Z Abstract Arctic cyclones, as a prevalent feature in the coupled dynamics of the Arctic climate system, have large impacts on the atmospheric transport of heat and moisture and deformation and drifting of sea ice. Previous studies based on historical and future simulations with climate models suggest that Arctic cyclogenesis is affected by the Arctic amplification of global warming, for instance, a growing land-sea thermal contrast. We thus hypothesize that biogeophysical feedbacks (BF) over the land, here mainly referring to the albedo-induced warming in spring and evaporative cooling in summer, may have the potential to significantly change cyclone activity in the Arctic. Based on a regional Earth system model (RCA-GUESS) which couples a dynamic vegetation model and a regional atmospheric model and an algorithm of cyclone detection and tracking, this study assesses for the first time the impacts of BF on the characteristics of Arctic cyclones under three IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our analysis focuses on the spring- and summer time periods, since previous studies showed BF are the most pronounced in these seasons. We find that BF induced by changes in surface heat fluxes lead to changes in land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric stability. This, in turn, noticeably changes the atmospheric baroclinicity and, thus, leads to a change of cyclone activity in the Arctic, in particular to the increase of cyclone frequency over the Arctic Ocean in spring. This study highlights the importance of accounting for BF in the prediction of Arctic cyclones and the role of circulation in the Arctic regional Earth system. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Global warming Sea ice IOP Publishing Environmental Research Letters 16 6 064076 |
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Abstract Arctic cyclones, as a prevalent feature in the coupled dynamics of the Arctic climate system, have large impacts on the atmospheric transport of heat and moisture and deformation and drifting of sea ice. Previous studies based on historical and future simulations with climate models suggest that Arctic cyclogenesis is affected by the Arctic amplification of global warming, for instance, a growing land-sea thermal contrast. We thus hypothesize that biogeophysical feedbacks (BF) over the land, here mainly referring to the albedo-induced warming in spring and evaporative cooling in summer, may have the potential to significantly change cyclone activity in the Arctic. Based on a regional Earth system model (RCA-GUESS) which couples a dynamic vegetation model and a regional atmospheric model and an algorithm of cyclone detection and tracking, this study assesses for the first time the impacts of BF on the characteristics of Arctic cyclones under three IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our analysis focuses on the spring- and summer time periods, since previous studies showed BF are the most pronounced in these seasons. We find that BF induced by changes in surface heat fluxes lead to changes in land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric stability. This, in turn, noticeably changes the atmospheric baroclinicity and, thus, leads to a change of cyclone activity in the Arctic, in particular to the increase of cyclone frequency over the Arctic Ocean in spring. This study highlights the importance of accounting for BF in the prediction of Arctic cyclones and the role of circulation in the Arctic regional Earth system. |
author2 |
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas Russian Foundation for Basic Research H2020 Environment Swedish National Space Agency Russian Science Foundation |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Akperov, Mirseid Zhang, Wenxin Miller, Paul A Mokhov, Igor I Semenov, Vladimir A Matthes, Heidrun Smith, Benjamin Rinke, Annette |
spellingShingle |
Akperov, Mirseid Zhang, Wenxin Miller, Paul A Mokhov, Igor I Semenov, Vladimir A Matthes, Heidrun Smith, Benjamin Rinke, Annette Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model |
author_facet |
Akperov, Mirseid Zhang, Wenxin Miller, Paul A Mokhov, Igor I Semenov, Vladimir A Matthes, Heidrun Smith, Benjamin Rinke, Annette |
author_sort |
Akperov, Mirseid |
title |
Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model |
title_short |
Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model |
title_full |
Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model |
title_fullStr |
Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model |
title_sort |
responses of arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional earth system model |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0566 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0566 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0566/pdf |
genre |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 16, issue 6, page 064076 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0566 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
064076 |
_version_ |
1810480245494513664 |