Climate drivers of Arctic tundra variability and change using an indicators framework
Abstract This study applies an indicators framework to investigate climate drivers of tundra vegetation trends and variability over the 1982–2019 period. Previously known indicators relevant for tundra productivity (summer warmth index (SWI), coastal spring sea-ice (SI) area, coastal summer open-wat...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe676 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe676 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe676/pdf |
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/abe676 2024-09-15T18:35:35+00:00 Climate drivers of Arctic tundra variability and change using an indicators framework Bhatt, Uma S Walker, Donald A Raynolds, Martha K Walsh, John E Bieniek, Peter A Cai, Lei Comiso, Josefino C Epstein, Howard E Frost, Gerald V Gersten, Robert Hendricks, Amy S Pinzon, Jorge E Stock, Larry Tucker, Compton J Climate Program Office Office of Polar Programs National Aeronautics and Space Administration 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe676 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe676 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe676/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 16, issue 5, page 055019 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2021 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe676 2024-09-02T04:14:37Z Abstract This study applies an indicators framework to investigate climate drivers of tundra vegetation trends and variability over the 1982–2019 period. Previously known indicators relevant for tundra productivity (summer warmth index (SWI), coastal spring sea-ice (SI) area, coastal summer open-water (OW)) and three additional indicators (continentality, summer precipitation, and the Arctic Dipole (AD): second mode of sea level pressure variability) are analyzed with maximum annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MaxNDVI) and the sum of summer bi-weekly (time-integrated) NDVI (TI-NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer time-series. Climatological mean, trends, and correlations between variables are presented. Changes in SI continue to drive variations in the other indicators. As spring SI has decreased, summer OW, summer warmth, MaxNDVI, and TI-NDVI have increased. However, the initial very strong upward trends in previous studies for MaxNDVI and TI-NDVI are weakening and becoming spatially and temporally more variable as the ice retreats from the coastal areas. TI-NDVI has declined over the last decade particularly over High Arctic regions and southwest Alaska. The continentality index (CI) (maximum minus minimum monthly temperatures) is decreasing across the tundra, more so over North America than Eurasia. The relationship has weakened between SI and SWI and TI-NDVI, as the maritime influence of OW has increased along with total precipitation. The winter AD is correlated in Eurasia with spring SI, summer OW, MaxNDVI, TI-NDVI, the CI and total summer precipitation. This winter connection to tundra emphasizes the role of SI in driving the summer indicators. The winter (DJF) AD drives SI variations which in turn shape summer OW, the atmospheric SWI and NDVI anomalies. The winter and spring indicators represent potential predictors of tundra vegetation productivity a season or two in advance of the growing season. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Tundra Alaska IOP Publishing Environmental Research Letters 16 5 055019 |
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Abstract This study applies an indicators framework to investigate climate drivers of tundra vegetation trends and variability over the 1982–2019 period. Previously known indicators relevant for tundra productivity (summer warmth index (SWI), coastal spring sea-ice (SI) area, coastal summer open-water (OW)) and three additional indicators (continentality, summer precipitation, and the Arctic Dipole (AD): second mode of sea level pressure variability) are analyzed with maximum annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MaxNDVI) and the sum of summer bi-weekly (time-integrated) NDVI (TI-NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer time-series. Climatological mean, trends, and correlations between variables are presented. Changes in SI continue to drive variations in the other indicators. As spring SI has decreased, summer OW, summer warmth, MaxNDVI, and TI-NDVI have increased. However, the initial very strong upward trends in previous studies for MaxNDVI and TI-NDVI are weakening and becoming spatially and temporally more variable as the ice retreats from the coastal areas. TI-NDVI has declined over the last decade particularly over High Arctic regions and southwest Alaska. The continentality index (CI) (maximum minus minimum monthly temperatures) is decreasing across the tundra, more so over North America than Eurasia. The relationship has weakened between SI and SWI and TI-NDVI, as the maritime influence of OW has increased along with total precipitation. The winter AD is correlated in Eurasia with spring SI, summer OW, MaxNDVI, TI-NDVI, the CI and total summer precipitation. This winter connection to tundra emphasizes the role of SI in driving the summer indicators. The winter (DJF) AD drives SI variations which in turn shape summer OW, the atmospheric SWI and NDVI anomalies. The winter and spring indicators represent potential predictors of tundra vegetation productivity a season or two in advance of the growing season. |
author2 |
Climate Program Office Office of Polar Programs National Aeronautics and Space Administration |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bhatt, Uma S Walker, Donald A Raynolds, Martha K Walsh, John E Bieniek, Peter A Cai, Lei Comiso, Josefino C Epstein, Howard E Frost, Gerald V Gersten, Robert Hendricks, Amy S Pinzon, Jorge E Stock, Larry Tucker, Compton J |
spellingShingle |
Bhatt, Uma S Walker, Donald A Raynolds, Martha K Walsh, John E Bieniek, Peter A Cai, Lei Comiso, Josefino C Epstein, Howard E Frost, Gerald V Gersten, Robert Hendricks, Amy S Pinzon, Jorge E Stock, Larry Tucker, Compton J Climate drivers of Arctic tundra variability and change using an indicators framework |
author_facet |
Bhatt, Uma S Walker, Donald A Raynolds, Martha K Walsh, John E Bieniek, Peter A Cai, Lei Comiso, Josefino C Epstein, Howard E Frost, Gerald V Gersten, Robert Hendricks, Amy S Pinzon, Jorge E Stock, Larry Tucker, Compton J |
author_sort |
Bhatt, Uma S |
title |
Climate drivers of Arctic tundra variability and change using an indicators framework |
title_short |
Climate drivers of Arctic tundra variability and change using an indicators framework |
title_full |
Climate drivers of Arctic tundra variability and change using an indicators framework |
title_fullStr |
Climate drivers of Arctic tundra variability and change using an indicators framework |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate drivers of Arctic tundra variability and change using an indicators framework |
title_sort |
climate drivers of arctic tundra variability and change using an indicators framework |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe676 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe676 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe676/pdf |
genre |
Sea ice Tundra Alaska |
genre_facet |
Sea ice Tundra Alaska |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 16, issue 5, page 055019 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe676 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
055019 |
_version_ |
1810478773655568384 |