How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events?
Abstract Pronounced changes in the Arctic environment add a new potential driver of anomalous weather patterns in midlatitudes that affect billions of people. Recent studies of these Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages, however, state inconsistent conclusions. A source of uncertainty arises from the...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5d https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5d https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5d/pdf |
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5d 2024-06-02T08:00:20+00:00 How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events? Overland, J E Ballinger, T J Cohen, J Francis, J A Hanna, E Jaiser, R Kim, B -M Kim, S -J Ukita, J Vihma, T Wang, M Zhang, X Climate Program Office 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5d https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5d https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5d/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 16, issue 4, page 043002 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2021 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5d 2024-05-07T14:02:03Z Abstract Pronounced changes in the Arctic environment add a new potential driver of anomalous weather patterns in midlatitudes that affect billions of people. Recent studies of these Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages, however, state inconsistent conclusions. A source of uncertainty arises from the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Thermodynamic forcing by a rapidly warming Arctic contributes to weather events through changing surface heat fluxes and large-scale temperature and pressure gradients. But internal shifts in atmospheric dynamics—the variability of the location, strength, and character of the jet stream, blocking, and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV)—obscure the direct causes and effects. It is important to understand these associated processes to differentiate Arctic-forced variability from natural variability. For example in early winter, reduced Barents/Kara Seas sea-ice coverage may reinforce existing atmospheric teleconnections between the North Atlantic/Arctic and central Asia, and affect downstream weather in East Asia. Reduced sea ice in the Chukchi Sea can amplify atmospheric ridging of high pressure near Alaska, influencing downstream weather across North America. In late winter southward displacement of the SPV, coupled to the troposphere, leads to weather extremes in Eurasia and North America. Combined tropical and sea ice conditions can modulate the variability of the SPV. Observational evidence for Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages continues to accumulate, along with understanding of connections with pre-existing climate states. Relative to natural atmospheric variability, sea-ice loss alone has played a secondary role in Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages; the full influence of Arctic amplification remains uncertain. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic Chukchi Chukchi Sea North Atlantic Sea ice Alaska IOP Publishing Arctic Chukchi Sea Environmental Research Letters 16 4 043002 |
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Abstract Pronounced changes in the Arctic environment add a new potential driver of anomalous weather patterns in midlatitudes that affect billions of people. Recent studies of these Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages, however, state inconsistent conclusions. A source of uncertainty arises from the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Thermodynamic forcing by a rapidly warming Arctic contributes to weather events through changing surface heat fluxes and large-scale temperature and pressure gradients. But internal shifts in atmospheric dynamics—the variability of the location, strength, and character of the jet stream, blocking, and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV)—obscure the direct causes and effects. It is important to understand these associated processes to differentiate Arctic-forced variability from natural variability. For example in early winter, reduced Barents/Kara Seas sea-ice coverage may reinforce existing atmospheric teleconnections between the North Atlantic/Arctic and central Asia, and affect downstream weather in East Asia. Reduced sea ice in the Chukchi Sea can amplify atmospheric ridging of high pressure near Alaska, influencing downstream weather across North America. In late winter southward displacement of the SPV, coupled to the troposphere, leads to weather extremes in Eurasia and North America. Combined tropical and sea ice conditions can modulate the variability of the SPV. Observational evidence for Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages continues to accumulate, along with understanding of connections with pre-existing climate states. Relative to natural atmospheric variability, sea-ice loss alone has played a secondary role in Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages; the full influence of Arctic amplification remains uncertain. |
author2 |
Climate Program Office |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Overland, J E Ballinger, T J Cohen, J Francis, J A Hanna, E Jaiser, R Kim, B -M Kim, S -J Ukita, J Vihma, T Wang, M Zhang, X |
spellingShingle |
Overland, J E Ballinger, T J Cohen, J Francis, J A Hanna, E Jaiser, R Kim, B -M Kim, S -J Ukita, J Vihma, T Wang, M Zhang, X How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events? |
author_facet |
Overland, J E Ballinger, T J Cohen, J Francis, J A Hanna, E Jaiser, R Kim, B -M Kim, S -J Ukita, J Vihma, T Wang, M Zhang, X |
author_sort |
Overland, J E |
title |
How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events? |
title_short |
How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events? |
title_full |
How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events? |
title_fullStr |
How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events? |
title_full_unstemmed |
How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events? |
title_sort |
how do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events? |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5d https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5d https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5d/pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Chukchi Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Chukchi Sea |
genre |
Arctic Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic Chukchi Chukchi Sea North Atlantic Sea ice Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic Chukchi Chukchi Sea North Atlantic Sea ice Alaska |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 16, issue 4, page 043002 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5d |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
043002 |
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1800744331059920896 |