Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment
Abstract The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH 4 ), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
IOP Publishing
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29/pdf |
id |
crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 2024-06-02T08:02:17+00:00 Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara Abbott, Benjamin W Thornton, Brett F Frederick, Jennifer M Vonk, Jorien E Overduin, Paul Schädel, Christina Schuur, Edward A G Bourbonnais, Annie Demidov, Nikita Gavrilov, Anatoly He, Shengping Hugelius, Gustaf Jakobsson, Martin Jones, Miriam C Joung, DongJoo Kraev, Gleb Macdonald, Robie W David McGuire, A Mu, Cuicui O’Regan, Matt Schreiner, Kathryn M Stranne, Christian Pizhankova, Elena Vasiliev, Alexander Westermann, Sebastian Zarnetske, Jay P Zhang, Tingjun Ghandehari, Mehran Baeumler, Sarah Brown, Brian C Frei, Rebecca J Russian Science Foundation Permafrost Carbon Network through the National Science Foundation (NSF) Study of Environmental Arctic Change Swedish Science Foundation National Science Foundation National Key R&D Program of China Brigham Young University 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 15, issue 12, page 124075 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2020 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 2024-05-07T13:54:21Z Abstract The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH 4 ), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH 4 . Current fluxes of CH 4 and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr −1 , respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO 2 -equivalent (CO 2 e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO 2 e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change permafrost IOP Publishing Arctic Arctic Ocean Environmental Research Letters 15 12 124075 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
IOP Publishing |
op_collection_id |
crioppubl |
language |
unknown |
description |
Abstract The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH 4 ), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH 4 . Current fluxes of CH 4 and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr −1 , respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO 2 -equivalent (CO 2 e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO 2 e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback. |
author2 |
Russian Science Foundation Permafrost Carbon Network through the National Science Foundation (NSF) Study of Environmental Arctic Change Swedish Science Foundation National Science Foundation National Key R&D Program of China Brigham Young University |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara Abbott, Benjamin W Thornton, Brett F Frederick, Jennifer M Vonk, Jorien E Overduin, Paul Schädel, Christina Schuur, Edward A G Bourbonnais, Annie Demidov, Nikita Gavrilov, Anatoly He, Shengping Hugelius, Gustaf Jakobsson, Martin Jones, Miriam C Joung, DongJoo Kraev, Gleb Macdonald, Robie W David McGuire, A Mu, Cuicui O’Regan, Matt Schreiner, Kathryn M Stranne, Christian Pizhankova, Elena Vasiliev, Alexander Westermann, Sebastian Zarnetske, Jay P Zhang, Tingjun Ghandehari, Mehran Baeumler, Sarah Brown, Brian C Frei, Rebecca J |
spellingShingle |
Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara Abbott, Benjamin W Thornton, Brett F Frederick, Jennifer M Vonk, Jorien E Overduin, Paul Schädel, Christina Schuur, Edward A G Bourbonnais, Annie Demidov, Nikita Gavrilov, Anatoly He, Shengping Hugelius, Gustaf Jakobsson, Martin Jones, Miriam C Joung, DongJoo Kraev, Gleb Macdonald, Robie W David McGuire, A Mu, Cuicui O’Regan, Matt Schreiner, Kathryn M Stranne, Christian Pizhankova, Elena Vasiliev, Alexander Westermann, Sebastian Zarnetske, Jay P Zhang, Tingjun Ghandehari, Mehran Baeumler, Sarah Brown, Brian C Frei, Rebecca J Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment |
author_facet |
Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara Abbott, Benjamin W Thornton, Brett F Frederick, Jennifer M Vonk, Jorien E Overduin, Paul Schädel, Christina Schuur, Edward A G Bourbonnais, Annie Demidov, Nikita Gavrilov, Anatoly He, Shengping Hugelius, Gustaf Jakobsson, Martin Jones, Miriam C Joung, DongJoo Kraev, Gleb Macdonald, Robie W David McGuire, A Mu, Cuicui O’Regan, Matt Schreiner, Kathryn M Stranne, Christian Pizhankova, Elena Vasiliev, Alexander Westermann, Sebastian Zarnetske, Jay P Zhang, Tingjun Ghandehari, Mehran Baeumler, Sarah Brown, Brian C Frei, Rebecca J |
author_sort |
Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara |
title |
Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment |
title_short |
Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment |
title_full |
Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment |
title_fullStr |
Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment |
title_sort |
subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29/pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change permafrost |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 15, issue 12, page 124075 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
124075 |
_version_ |
1800746791589642240 |