Reply to Comment on ‘On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’
Abstract In their comment on our paper (Caesar et al 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15 024003), Chen and Tung (hereafter C&T) argue that our analysis, showing that over the last decades Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength and global mean surface temperature (GMST) were positive...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776/pdf |
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/abc776 2024-06-02T08:11:34+00:00 Reply to Comment on ‘On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’ Caesar, L Rahmstorf, S Feulner, G 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 16, issue 3, page 038002 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2021 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776 2024-05-07T14:02:17Z Abstract In their comment on our paper (Caesar et al 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15 024003), Chen and Tung (hereafter C&T) argue that our analysis, showing that over the last decades Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength and global mean surface temperature (GMST) were positively correlated, is incorrect. Their claim is mainly based on two arguments, neither of which is justified: first, C&T claim that our analysis is based on ‘established evidence’ that was only true for preindustrial conditions—this is not the case. Using data from the modern period (1947–2012), we show that the established understanding (i.e. deep-water formation in the North Atlantic cools the deep ocean and warms the surface) is correct, but our analysis is not based on this fact. Secondly, C&T claim that our results are based on a statistical analysis of only one cycle of data which was furthermore incorrectly detrended. This, too, is not true. Our conclusion that a weaker AMOC delays the current surface warming rather than enhances it, is based on several independent lines of evidence. The data we show to support this covers more than one cycle and the detrending (which was performed to avoid spurious correlations due to a common trend) does not affect our conclusion: the correlation between AMOC strength and GMST is positive. We do not claim that this is strong evidence that the two time series are in phase, but rather that this means that the two time series are not anti-correlated. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic IOP Publishing Environmental Research Letters 16 3 038002 |
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Abstract In their comment on our paper (Caesar et al 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15 024003), Chen and Tung (hereafter C&T) argue that our analysis, showing that over the last decades Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength and global mean surface temperature (GMST) were positively correlated, is incorrect. Their claim is mainly based on two arguments, neither of which is justified: first, C&T claim that our analysis is based on ‘established evidence’ that was only true for preindustrial conditions—this is not the case. Using data from the modern period (1947–2012), we show that the established understanding (i.e. deep-water formation in the North Atlantic cools the deep ocean and warms the surface) is correct, but our analysis is not based on this fact. Secondly, C&T claim that our results are based on a statistical analysis of only one cycle of data which was furthermore incorrectly detrended. This, too, is not true. Our conclusion that a weaker AMOC delays the current surface warming rather than enhances it, is based on several independent lines of evidence. The data we show to support this covers more than one cycle and the detrending (which was performed to avoid spurious correlations due to a common trend) does not affect our conclusion: the correlation between AMOC strength and GMST is positive. We do not claim that this is strong evidence that the two time series are in phase, but rather that this means that the two time series are not anti-correlated. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Caesar, L Rahmstorf, S Feulner, G |
spellingShingle |
Caesar, L Rahmstorf, S Feulner, G Reply to Comment on ‘On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’ |
author_facet |
Caesar, L Rahmstorf, S Feulner, G |
author_sort |
Caesar, L |
title |
Reply to Comment on ‘On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’ |
title_short |
Reply to Comment on ‘On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’ |
title_full |
Reply to Comment on ‘On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’ |
title_fullStr |
Reply to Comment on ‘On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’ |
title_full_unstemmed |
Reply to Comment on ‘On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’ |
title_sort |
reply to comment on ‘on the relationship between atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’ |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776/pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 16, issue 3, page 038002 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
038002 |
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1800757767266369536 |