Changes in precipitation and air temperature contribute comparably to permafrost degradation in a warmer climate
Abstract Surface energy budgets of high-latitude permafrost systems are poorly represented in Earth system models (ESMs), yet permafrost is rapidly degrading and these dynamics are critical to future carbon-climate feedback predictions. A potentially important factor in permafrost degradation neglec...
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/abc444 2024-10-13T14:00:50+00:00 Changes in precipitation and air temperature contribute comparably to permafrost degradation in a warmer climate Mekonnen, Zelalem A Riley, William J Grant, Robert F Romanovsky, Vladimir E Office of Science 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc444 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc444 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc444/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 16, issue 2, page 024008 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2021 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc444 2024-09-23T04:17:01Z Abstract Surface energy budgets of high-latitude permafrost systems are poorly represented in Earth system models (ESMs), yet permafrost is rapidly degrading and these dynamics are critical to future carbon-climate feedback predictions. A potentially important factor in permafrost degradation neglected so far by ESMs is heat transfer from precipitation, although increases in soil temperature and thaw depth have been observed following increases in precipitation. Using observations and a mechanistic ecosystem model, we show here that increases in precipitation hasten active layer development beyond that caused by surface air warming across the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) under recent and 21st century climate (RCP8.5). Modeled active layer depth (ALD) in simulations that allow precipitation heat transfer agreed very well with observations from 28 Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring sites (R 2 = 0.63; RMSE = 10 cm). Simulations that ignored precipitation heat transfer resulted in lower spatially-averaged soil temperatures and a 39 cm shallower ALD by 2100 across the NSA. The results from our sensitivity analysis show that projected increases in 21st century precipitation deepen the active layer by enhancing precipitation heat transfer and ground thermal conductivity, suggesting that precipitation is as important an environmental control on permafrost degradation as surface air temperature. We conclude that ESMs that do not account for precipitation heat transfer likely underestimate ALD rates of change, and thus likely predict biased ecosystem responses. Article in Journal/Newspaper Active layer monitoring north slope permafrost Alaska IOP Publishing Environmental Research Letters 16 2 024008 |
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Abstract Surface energy budgets of high-latitude permafrost systems are poorly represented in Earth system models (ESMs), yet permafrost is rapidly degrading and these dynamics are critical to future carbon-climate feedback predictions. A potentially important factor in permafrost degradation neglected so far by ESMs is heat transfer from precipitation, although increases in soil temperature and thaw depth have been observed following increases in precipitation. Using observations and a mechanistic ecosystem model, we show here that increases in precipitation hasten active layer development beyond that caused by surface air warming across the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) under recent and 21st century climate (RCP8.5). Modeled active layer depth (ALD) in simulations that allow precipitation heat transfer agreed very well with observations from 28 Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring sites (R 2 = 0.63; RMSE = 10 cm). Simulations that ignored precipitation heat transfer resulted in lower spatially-averaged soil temperatures and a 39 cm shallower ALD by 2100 across the NSA. The results from our sensitivity analysis show that projected increases in 21st century precipitation deepen the active layer by enhancing precipitation heat transfer and ground thermal conductivity, suggesting that precipitation is as important an environmental control on permafrost degradation as surface air temperature. We conclude that ESMs that do not account for precipitation heat transfer likely underestimate ALD rates of change, and thus likely predict biased ecosystem responses. |
author2 |
Office of Science |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mekonnen, Zelalem A Riley, William J Grant, Robert F Romanovsky, Vladimir E |
spellingShingle |
Mekonnen, Zelalem A Riley, William J Grant, Robert F Romanovsky, Vladimir E Changes in precipitation and air temperature contribute comparably to permafrost degradation in a warmer climate |
author_facet |
Mekonnen, Zelalem A Riley, William J Grant, Robert F Romanovsky, Vladimir E |
author_sort |
Mekonnen, Zelalem A |
title |
Changes in precipitation and air temperature contribute comparably to permafrost degradation in a warmer climate |
title_short |
Changes in precipitation and air temperature contribute comparably to permafrost degradation in a warmer climate |
title_full |
Changes in precipitation and air temperature contribute comparably to permafrost degradation in a warmer climate |
title_fullStr |
Changes in precipitation and air temperature contribute comparably to permafrost degradation in a warmer climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changes in precipitation and air temperature contribute comparably to permafrost degradation in a warmer climate |
title_sort |
changes in precipitation and air temperature contribute comparably to permafrost degradation in a warmer climate |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc444 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc444 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc444/pdf |
genre |
Active layer monitoring north slope permafrost Alaska |
genre_facet |
Active layer monitoring north slope permafrost Alaska |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 16, issue 2, page 024008 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc444 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
024008 |
_version_ |
1812811084448399360 |