High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate
Abstract The presence of ground ice in Arctic soils exerts a major effect on permafrost hydrology and ecology, and factors prominently into geomorphic landform development. As most ground ice has accumulated in near-surface permafrost, it is sensitive to variations in atmospheric conditions. Typical...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5/pdf https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5/ampdf |
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5 2024-06-23T07:50:14+00:00 High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate Karjalainen, Olli Luoto, Miska Aalto, Juha Etzelmüller, Bernd Grosse, Guido Jones, Benjamin M Lilleøren, Karianne S Hjort, Jan Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft European Research Council Directorate for Geosciences National Aeronautics and Space Administration Academy of Finland Office of Polar Programs 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5/pdf https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5/ampdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 15, issue 10, page 104065 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2020 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5 2024-06-03T08:15:36Z Abstract The presence of ground ice in Arctic soils exerts a major effect on permafrost hydrology and ecology, and factors prominently into geomorphic landform development. As most ground ice has accumulated in near-surface permafrost, it is sensitive to variations in atmospheric conditions. Typical and regionally widespread permafrost landforms such as pingos, ice-wedge polygons, and rock glaciers are closely tied to ground ice. However, under ongoing climate change, suitable environmental spaces for preserving landforms associated with ice-rich permafrost may be rapidly disappearing. We deploy a statistical ensemble approach to model, for the first time, the current and potential future environmental conditions of three typical permafrost landforms, pingos, ice-wedge polygons and rock glaciers across the Northern Hemisphere. We show that by midcentury, the landforms are projected to lose more than one-fifth of their suitable environments under a moderate climate scenario (RCP4.5) and on average around one-third under a very high baseline emission scenario (RCP8.5), even when projected new suitable areas for occurrence are considered. By 2061–2080, on average more than 50% of the recent suitable conditions can be lost (RCP8.5). In the case of pingos and ice-wedge polygons, geographical changes are mainly attributed to alterations in thawing-season precipitation and air temperatures. Rock glaciers show air temperature-induced regional changes in suitable conditions strongly constrained by topography and soil properties. The predicted losses could have important implications for Arctic hydrology, geo- and biodiversity, and to the global climate system through changes in biogeochemical cycles governed by the geomorphology of permafrost landscapes. Moreover, our projections provide insights into the circumpolar distribution of various ground ice types and help inventory permafrost landforms in unmapped regions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost wedge* IOP Publishing Arctic Environmental Research Letters 15 10 104065 |
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Open Polar |
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IOP Publishing |
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crioppubl |
language |
unknown |
description |
Abstract The presence of ground ice in Arctic soils exerts a major effect on permafrost hydrology and ecology, and factors prominently into geomorphic landform development. As most ground ice has accumulated in near-surface permafrost, it is sensitive to variations in atmospheric conditions. Typical and regionally widespread permafrost landforms such as pingos, ice-wedge polygons, and rock glaciers are closely tied to ground ice. However, under ongoing climate change, suitable environmental spaces for preserving landforms associated with ice-rich permafrost may be rapidly disappearing. We deploy a statistical ensemble approach to model, for the first time, the current and potential future environmental conditions of three typical permafrost landforms, pingos, ice-wedge polygons and rock glaciers across the Northern Hemisphere. We show that by midcentury, the landforms are projected to lose more than one-fifth of their suitable environments under a moderate climate scenario (RCP4.5) and on average around one-third under a very high baseline emission scenario (RCP8.5), even when projected new suitable areas for occurrence are considered. By 2061–2080, on average more than 50% of the recent suitable conditions can be lost (RCP8.5). In the case of pingos and ice-wedge polygons, geographical changes are mainly attributed to alterations in thawing-season precipitation and air temperatures. Rock glaciers show air temperature-induced regional changes in suitable conditions strongly constrained by topography and soil properties. The predicted losses could have important implications for Arctic hydrology, geo- and biodiversity, and to the global climate system through changes in biogeochemical cycles governed by the geomorphology of permafrost landscapes. Moreover, our projections provide insights into the circumpolar distribution of various ground ice types and help inventory permafrost landforms in unmapped regions. |
author2 |
Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft European Research Council Directorate for Geosciences National Aeronautics and Space Administration Academy of Finland Office of Polar Programs |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Karjalainen, Olli Luoto, Miska Aalto, Juha Etzelmüller, Bernd Grosse, Guido Jones, Benjamin M Lilleøren, Karianne S Hjort, Jan |
spellingShingle |
Karjalainen, Olli Luoto, Miska Aalto, Juha Etzelmüller, Bernd Grosse, Guido Jones, Benjamin M Lilleøren, Karianne S Hjort, Jan High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate |
author_facet |
Karjalainen, Olli Luoto, Miska Aalto, Juha Etzelmüller, Bernd Grosse, Guido Jones, Benjamin M Lilleøren, Karianne S Hjort, Jan |
author_sort |
Karjalainen, Olli |
title |
High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate |
title_short |
High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate |
title_full |
High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate |
title_fullStr |
High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
High potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate |
title_sort |
high potential for loss of permafrost landforms in a changing climate |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5/pdf https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5/ampdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost wedge* |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost wedge* |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 15, issue 10, page 104065 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd5 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
104065 |
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1802641111142891520 |