An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes
Abstract In this study, the causes of the increase in global mean tropical cyclone translation speed (TCTS) in the post-satellite era were investigated. Analysis reveals that the global-mean TCTS increased by 0.31 km h −1 per decade over the last 36 years, but the steering flow controlling the local...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
IOP Publishing
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1f https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1f https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1f/pdf |
id |
crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1f |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1f 2024-06-23T07:55:03+00:00 An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes Kim, Sung-Hun Moon, Il-Ju Chu, Pao-Shin 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1f https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1f https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1f/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 15, issue 9, page 094084 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2020 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1f 2024-06-03T08:15:34Z Abstract In this study, the causes of the increase in global mean tropical cyclone translation speed (TCTS) in the post-satellite era were investigated. Analysis reveals that the global-mean TCTS increased by 0.31 km h −1 per decade over the last 36 years, but the steering flow controlling the local TCTS decreased by −0.24 km h −1 per decade in the major tropical cyclone (TC) passage regions. These values correspond to a change of 5.9% and −5.6% during the analysis period for the mean TCTS and steering flow, respectively. The inconsistency between these two related variables (TCTS and steering flows) is caused by relative TC frequency changes according to basin and latitude. The TCTS is closely related to the latitude of the TC position, which shows a significant difference in mean TCTS between basins. That is, the increased global-mean TCTS is mainly attributed to the following: (1) an increase (4.5% per decade) in the relative proportion of the North Atlantic TCs in terms of global TC’s position points (this region has the fastest mean TCTS among all basins); and (2) the poleward shift of TC activities. These two effects account for 76.8% and 25.8% of the observed global-mean TCTS trend, respectively, and thus overwhelm those of the slowing steering flow related to the weakening of large-scale tropical circulation, which leads to a global mean increase in TCTS. Given that TC activity in the North Atlantic is closely related to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation and a poleward shift of TC exposure is likely induced by global warming, the recent increase in the global-mean TCTS is a joint outcome of both natural variations and anthrophonic effects. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic IOP Publishing Environmental Research Letters 15 9 094084 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
IOP Publishing |
op_collection_id |
crioppubl |
language |
unknown |
description |
Abstract In this study, the causes of the increase in global mean tropical cyclone translation speed (TCTS) in the post-satellite era were investigated. Analysis reveals that the global-mean TCTS increased by 0.31 km h −1 per decade over the last 36 years, but the steering flow controlling the local TCTS decreased by −0.24 km h −1 per decade in the major tropical cyclone (TC) passage regions. These values correspond to a change of 5.9% and −5.6% during the analysis period for the mean TCTS and steering flow, respectively. The inconsistency between these two related variables (TCTS and steering flows) is caused by relative TC frequency changes according to basin and latitude. The TCTS is closely related to the latitude of the TC position, which shows a significant difference in mean TCTS between basins. That is, the increased global-mean TCTS is mainly attributed to the following: (1) an increase (4.5% per decade) in the relative proportion of the North Atlantic TCs in terms of global TC’s position points (this region has the fastest mean TCTS among all basins); and (2) the poleward shift of TC activities. These two effects account for 76.8% and 25.8% of the observed global-mean TCTS trend, respectively, and thus overwhelm those of the slowing steering flow related to the weakening of large-scale tropical circulation, which leads to a global mean increase in TCTS. Given that TC activity in the North Atlantic is closely related to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation and a poleward shift of TC exposure is likely induced by global warming, the recent increase in the global-mean TCTS is a joint outcome of both natural variations and anthrophonic effects. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kim, Sung-Hun Moon, Il-Ju Chu, Pao-Shin |
spellingShingle |
Kim, Sung-Hun Moon, Il-Ju Chu, Pao-Shin An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes |
author_facet |
Kim, Sung-Hun Moon, Il-Ju Chu, Pao-Shin |
author_sort |
Kim, Sung-Hun |
title |
An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes |
title_short |
An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes |
title_full |
An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes |
title_fullStr |
An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes |
title_full_unstemmed |
An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes |
title_sort |
increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1f https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1f https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1f/pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 15, issue 9, page 094084 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1f |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
094084 |
_version_ |
1802647458385231872 |