Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change
Abstract In this study, we compare the spatial patterns of simulated geocentric sea-level change to observations from satellite altimetry over the period 1993–2015 to assess whether a forced signal is detectable. This is challenging, as on these time scales internal variability plays an important ro...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e/pdf |
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e 2024-06-23T07:53:47+00:00 Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change Richter, Kristin Meyssignac, Benoit Slangen, Aimée B A Melet, Angélique Church, John A Fettweis, Xavier Marzeion, Ben Agosta, Cécile Ligtenberg, Stefan R M Spada, Giorgio Palmer, Matthew D Roberts, Christopher D Champollion, Nicolas Austrian Science Fund 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 15, issue 9, page 094079 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2020 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e 2024-06-03T08:15:09Z Abstract In this study, we compare the spatial patterns of simulated geocentric sea-level change to observations from satellite altimetry over the period 1993–2015 to assess whether a forced signal is detectable. This is challenging, as on these time scales internal variability plays an important role and may dominate the observed spatial patterns of regional sea-level change. Model simulations of regional sea-level change associated with sterodynamic sea level, atmospheric loading, glacier mass change, and ice-sheet surface mass balance changes are combined with observations of groundwater depletion, reservoir storage, and dynamic ice-sheet mass changes. The resulting total geocentric regional sea-level change is then compared to independent measurements from satellite altimeter observations. The detectability of the climate-forced signal is assessed by comparing the model ensemble mean of the ‘historical’ simulations with the characteristics of sea-level variability in pre-industrial control simulations. To further minimize the impact of internal variability, zonal averages were produced. We find that, in all ocean basins, zonally averaged simulated sea-level changes are consistent with observations within sampling uncertainties associated with simulated internal variability of the sterodynamic component. Furthermore, the simulated zonally averaged sea-level change cannot be explained by internal variability alone—thus we conclude that the observations include a forced contribution that is detectable at basin scales. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet IOP Publishing Environmental Research Letters 15 9 094079 |
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Abstract In this study, we compare the spatial patterns of simulated geocentric sea-level change to observations from satellite altimetry over the period 1993–2015 to assess whether a forced signal is detectable. This is challenging, as on these time scales internal variability plays an important role and may dominate the observed spatial patterns of regional sea-level change. Model simulations of regional sea-level change associated with sterodynamic sea level, atmospheric loading, glacier mass change, and ice-sheet surface mass balance changes are combined with observations of groundwater depletion, reservoir storage, and dynamic ice-sheet mass changes. The resulting total geocentric regional sea-level change is then compared to independent measurements from satellite altimeter observations. The detectability of the climate-forced signal is assessed by comparing the model ensemble mean of the ‘historical’ simulations with the characteristics of sea-level variability in pre-industrial control simulations. To further minimize the impact of internal variability, zonal averages were produced. We find that, in all ocean basins, zonally averaged simulated sea-level changes are consistent with observations within sampling uncertainties associated with simulated internal variability of the sterodynamic component. Furthermore, the simulated zonally averaged sea-level change cannot be explained by internal variability alone—thus we conclude that the observations include a forced contribution that is detectable at basin scales. |
author2 |
Austrian Science Fund |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Richter, Kristin Meyssignac, Benoit Slangen, Aimée B A Melet, Angélique Church, John A Fettweis, Xavier Marzeion, Ben Agosta, Cécile Ligtenberg, Stefan R M Spada, Giorgio Palmer, Matthew D Roberts, Christopher D Champollion, Nicolas |
spellingShingle |
Richter, Kristin Meyssignac, Benoit Slangen, Aimée B A Melet, Angélique Church, John A Fettweis, Xavier Marzeion, Ben Agosta, Cécile Ligtenberg, Stefan R M Spada, Giorgio Palmer, Matthew D Roberts, Christopher D Champollion, Nicolas Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
author_facet |
Richter, Kristin Meyssignac, Benoit Slangen, Aimée B A Melet, Angélique Church, John A Fettweis, Xavier Marzeion, Ben Agosta, Cécile Ligtenberg, Stefan R M Spada, Giorgio Palmer, Matthew D Roberts, Christopher D Champollion, Nicolas |
author_sort |
Richter, Kristin |
title |
Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
title_short |
Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
title_full |
Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
title_fullStr |
Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
title_sort |
detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e/pdf |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 15, issue 9, page 094079 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
094079 |
_version_ |
1802645601876180992 |