Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation
Abstract Past studies have concluded that climate models of previous generations tended to underestimate the large warming trend that has been observed in summer over western Europe in the last few decades. The causes of this systematic error are still not clear. Here, we investigate this issue with...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89/pdf |
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 2024-09-15T18:23:42+00:00 Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation Boé, Julien Terray, Laurent Moine, Marie-Pierre Valcke, Sophie Bellucci, Alessio Drijfhout, Sybren Haarsma, Rein Lohmann, Katja Putrasahan, Dian A. Roberts, Chris Roberts, Malcom Scoccimarro, Enrico Seddon, Jon Senan, Retish Wyser, Klaus Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 15, issue 8, page 084038 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2020 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 2024-08-05T04:19:43Z Abstract Past studies have concluded that climate models of previous generations tended to underestimate the large warming trend that has been observed in summer over western Europe in the last few decades. The causes of this systematic error are still not clear. Here, we investigate this issue with a new generation of climate models and systematically explore the role of large-scale circulation in that context. As an ensemble, climate models in this study warm less over western Europe and warm more over eastern Europe than observed on the 1951–2014 period, but it is difficult to conclude this is directly due to systematic errors given the large potential impact of internal variability. These differences in temperature trends are explained to an important extent by an anti-correlation of sea level pressure trends over the North Atlantic / Europe domain between models and observations. The observed trend tends to warm (cool) western (eastern) Europe but the simulated trends generally have the opposite effect, both in new generation and past generation climate models. The differences between observed and simulated sea level pressure trends are likely the result of systematic model errors, which might also impact future climate projections. Neither a higher resolution nor the realistic representation of the evolution of sea surface temperature and sea ice leads to a better simulation of sea level pressure trends. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Sea ice IOP Publishing Environmental Research Letters 15 8 084038 |
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Abstract Past studies have concluded that climate models of previous generations tended to underestimate the large warming trend that has been observed in summer over western Europe in the last few decades. The causes of this systematic error are still not clear. Here, we investigate this issue with a new generation of climate models and systematically explore the role of large-scale circulation in that context. As an ensemble, climate models in this study warm less over western Europe and warm more over eastern Europe than observed on the 1951–2014 period, but it is difficult to conclude this is directly due to systematic errors given the large potential impact of internal variability. These differences in temperature trends are explained to an important extent by an anti-correlation of sea level pressure trends over the North Atlantic / Europe domain between models and observations. The observed trend tends to warm (cool) western (eastern) Europe but the simulated trends generally have the opposite effect, both in new generation and past generation climate models. The differences between observed and simulated sea level pressure trends are likely the result of systematic model errors, which might also impact future climate projections. Neither a higher resolution nor the realistic representation of the evolution of sea surface temperature and sea ice leads to a better simulation of sea level pressure trends. |
author2 |
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Boé, Julien Terray, Laurent Moine, Marie-Pierre Valcke, Sophie Bellucci, Alessio Drijfhout, Sybren Haarsma, Rein Lohmann, Katja Putrasahan, Dian A. Roberts, Chris Roberts, Malcom Scoccimarro, Enrico Seddon, Jon Senan, Retish Wyser, Klaus |
spellingShingle |
Boé, Julien Terray, Laurent Moine, Marie-Pierre Valcke, Sophie Bellucci, Alessio Drijfhout, Sybren Haarsma, Rein Lohmann, Katja Putrasahan, Dian A. Roberts, Chris Roberts, Malcom Scoccimarro, Enrico Seddon, Jon Senan, Retish Wyser, Klaus Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
author_facet |
Boé, Julien Terray, Laurent Moine, Marie-Pierre Valcke, Sophie Bellucci, Alessio Drijfhout, Sybren Haarsma, Rein Lohmann, Katja Putrasahan, Dian A. Roberts, Chris Roberts, Malcom Scoccimarro, Enrico Seddon, Jon Senan, Retish Wyser, Klaus |
author_sort |
Boé, Julien |
title |
Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_short |
Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_full |
Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_fullStr |
Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_sort |
past long-term summer warming over western europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89/pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 15, issue 8, page 084038 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
084038 |
_version_ |
1810463959847796736 |