Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands

Abstract Uncertainties in the rate and magnitude of sea-level rise (SLR) complicate decision making on coastal adaptation. Large uncertainty arises from potential ice mass-loss from Antarctica that could rapidly increase SLR in the second half of this century. The implications of SLR may be existent...

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Published in:Environmental Research Letters
Main Authors: Haasnoot, M, Kwadijk, J, van Alphen, J, Le Bars, D, van den Hurk, B, Diermanse, F, van der Spek, A, Essink, G Oude, Delsman, J, Mens, M
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:unknown
Published: IOP Publishing 2020
Subjects:
Antarctic
Antarc*
Antarctica
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab666c
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab666c
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab666c/pdf
id crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ab666c
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spelling crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ab666c 2024-06-23T07:46:04+00:00 Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands Haasnoot, M Kwadijk, J van Alphen, J Le Bars, D van den Hurk, B Diermanse, F van der Spek, A Essink, G Oude Delsman, J Mens, M 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab666c https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab666c https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab666c/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 15, issue 3, page 034007 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2020 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab666c 2024-06-10T04:10:47Z Abstract Uncertainties in the rate and magnitude of sea-level rise (SLR) complicate decision making on coastal adaptation. Large uncertainty arises from potential ice mass-loss from Antarctica that could rapidly increase SLR in the second half of this century. The implications of SLR may be existential for a low-lying country like the Netherlands and warrant exploration of high-impact low-likelihood scenarios. To deal with uncertain SLR, the Netherlands has adopted an adaptive pathways plan. This paper analyzes the implications of storylines leading to extreme SLR for the current adaptive plan in the Netherlands, focusing on flood risk, fresh water resources, and coastline management. It further discusses implications for coastal adaptation in low-lying coastal zones considering timescales of adaptation including the decisions lifetime and lead-in time for preparation and implementation. We find that as sea levels rise faster and higher, sand nourishment volumes to maintain the Dutch coast may need to be up to 20 times larger than to date in 2100, storm surge barriers will need to close at increasing frequency until closed permanently, and intensified saltwater intrusion will reduce freshwater availability while the demand is rising. The expected lifetime of investments will reduce drastically. Consequently, step-wise adaptation needs to occur at an increasing frequency or with larger increments while there is still large SLR uncertainty with the risk of under- or overinvesting. Anticipating deeply uncertain, high SLR scenarios helps to enable timely adaptation and to appreciate the value of emission reduction and monitoring of the Antarctica contribution to SLR. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica IOP Publishing Antarctic Environmental Research Letters 15 3 034007
institution Open Polar
collection IOP Publishing
op_collection_id crioppubl
language unknown
description Abstract Uncertainties in the rate and magnitude of sea-level rise (SLR) complicate decision making on coastal adaptation. Large uncertainty arises from potential ice mass-loss from Antarctica that could rapidly increase SLR in the second half of this century. The implications of SLR may be existential for a low-lying country like the Netherlands and warrant exploration of high-impact low-likelihood scenarios. To deal with uncertain SLR, the Netherlands has adopted an adaptive pathways plan. This paper analyzes the implications of storylines leading to extreme SLR for the current adaptive plan in the Netherlands, focusing on flood risk, fresh water resources, and coastline management. It further discusses implications for coastal adaptation in low-lying coastal zones considering timescales of adaptation including the decisions lifetime and lead-in time for preparation and implementation. We find that as sea levels rise faster and higher, sand nourishment volumes to maintain the Dutch coast may need to be up to 20 times larger than to date in 2100, storm surge barriers will need to close at increasing frequency until closed permanently, and intensified saltwater intrusion will reduce freshwater availability while the demand is rising. The expected lifetime of investments will reduce drastically. Consequently, step-wise adaptation needs to occur at an increasing frequency or with larger increments while there is still large SLR uncertainty with the risk of under- or overinvesting. Anticipating deeply uncertain, high SLR scenarios helps to enable timely adaptation and to appreciate the value of emission reduction and monitoring of the Antarctica contribution to SLR.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Haasnoot, M
Kwadijk, J
van Alphen, J
Le Bars, D
van den Hurk, B
Diermanse, F
van der Spek, A
Essink, G Oude
Delsman, J
Mens, M
spellingShingle Haasnoot, M
Kwadijk, J
van Alphen, J
Le Bars, D
van den Hurk, B
Diermanse, F
van der Spek, A
Essink, G Oude
Delsman, J
Mens, M
Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands
author_facet Haasnoot, M
Kwadijk, J
van Alphen, J
Le Bars, D
van den Hurk, B
Diermanse, F
van der Spek, A
Essink, G Oude
Delsman, J
Mens, M
author_sort Haasnoot, M
title Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands
title_short Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands
title_full Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands
title_fullStr Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands
title_full_unstemmed Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands
title_sort adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the netherlands
publisher IOP Publishing
publishDate 2020
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab666c
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab666c
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab666c/pdf
geographic Antarctic
geographic_facet Antarctic
genre Antarc*
Antarctic
Antarctica
genre_facet Antarc*
Antarctic
Antarctica
op_source Environmental Research Letters
volume 15, issue 3, page 034007
ISSN 1748-9326
op_rights http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab666c
container_title Environmental Research Letters
container_volume 15
container_issue 3
container_start_page 034007
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