Effect on the Earth system of realizing a 1.5 °C warming climate target after overshooting to the 2 °C level
Abstract An Earth system model (ESM) was used to investigate the effect of reaching the target of 1.5 °C warming (relative to preindustrial levels) after overshooting to the 2 °C level with respect to selected global environment indicators. Two scenarios were compared that diverged after reaching th...
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ab5199 2024-09-15T18:35:38+00:00 Effect on the Earth system of realizing a 1.5 °C warming climate target after overshooting to the 2 °C level Tachiiri, Kaoru Silva Herran, Diego Su, Xuanming Kawamiya, Michio Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5199 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5199 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5199/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 14, issue 12, page 124063 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2019 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5199 2024-08-26T04:19:37Z Abstract An Earth system model (ESM) was used to investigate the effect of reaching the target of 1.5 °C warming (relative to preindustrial levels) after overshooting to the 2 °C level with respect to selected global environment indicators. Two scenarios were compared that diverged after reaching the 2 °C level: one stayed at the 2 °C level, and the other cooled to the 1.5 °C level. Unlike the internationally coordinated model intercomparison projects, the scenarios were developed for a specific climatic model with emissions and land use scenarios consistent with socioeconomic projections from an integrated assessment model. The ESM output resulted in delayed realization of the 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets expected for 2100. The cumulative CO 2 emissions for 2010−2100 (2300) were 358 (−53) GtCO 2 in the 2 °C scenario and −337 (−936) GtCO 2 in the 1.5 °C scenario. We examined the effect of overshooting on commonly used indicators related to surface air temperature, sea surface temperature and total ocean heat uptake. Global vegetation productivity at 2100 showed around a 5% increase in the 2 °C scenario without overshooting compared with the 1.5 °C scenario with overshooting, considered to be caused by more precipitation and stronger CO 2 fertilization. A considerable difference was found between the two scenarios in terms of Arctic sea ice, whereas both scenarios indicated few corals would survive past the 21st century. The difference in steric sea level rise, reflecting total cumulative ocean heat uptake, between the two scenarios was <2 cm in 2100, and around 9 cm in 2300 in the Pacific Island region. A large overshoot may reduce the eventual difference between targets (i.e. 1.5 °C in contrast to 2 °C), particularly in terms of the indicators related to total ocean heat uptake, and to sensitive biological thresholds. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice IOP Publishing Environmental Research Letters 14 12 124063 |
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Abstract An Earth system model (ESM) was used to investigate the effect of reaching the target of 1.5 °C warming (relative to preindustrial levels) after overshooting to the 2 °C level with respect to selected global environment indicators. Two scenarios were compared that diverged after reaching the 2 °C level: one stayed at the 2 °C level, and the other cooled to the 1.5 °C level. Unlike the internationally coordinated model intercomparison projects, the scenarios were developed for a specific climatic model with emissions and land use scenarios consistent with socioeconomic projections from an integrated assessment model. The ESM output resulted in delayed realization of the 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets expected for 2100. The cumulative CO 2 emissions for 2010−2100 (2300) were 358 (−53) GtCO 2 in the 2 °C scenario and −337 (−936) GtCO 2 in the 1.5 °C scenario. We examined the effect of overshooting on commonly used indicators related to surface air temperature, sea surface temperature and total ocean heat uptake. Global vegetation productivity at 2100 showed around a 5% increase in the 2 °C scenario without overshooting compared with the 1.5 °C scenario with overshooting, considered to be caused by more precipitation and stronger CO 2 fertilization. A considerable difference was found between the two scenarios in terms of Arctic sea ice, whereas both scenarios indicated few corals would survive past the 21st century. The difference in steric sea level rise, reflecting total cumulative ocean heat uptake, between the two scenarios was <2 cm in 2100, and around 9 cm in 2300 in the Pacific Island region. A large overshoot may reduce the eventual difference between targets (i.e. 1.5 °C in contrast to 2 °C), particularly in terms of the indicators related to total ocean heat uptake, and to sensitive biological thresholds. |
author2 |
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tachiiri, Kaoru Silva Herran, Diego Su, Xuanming Kawamiya, Michio |
spellingShingle |
Tachiiri, Kaoru Silva Herran, Diego Su, Xuanming Kawamiya, Michio Effect on the Earth system of realizing a 1.5 °C warming climate target after overshooting to the 2 °C level |
author_facet |
Tachiiri, Kaoru Silva Herran, Diego Su, Xuanming Kawamiya, Michio |
author_sort |
Tachiiri, Kaoru |
title |
Effect on the Earth system of realizing a 1.5 °C warming climate target after overshooting to the 2 °C level |
title_short |
Effect on the Earth system of realizing a 1.5 °C warming climate target after overshooting to the 2 °C level |
title_full |
Effect on the Earth system of realizing a 1.5 °C warming climate target after overshooting to the 2 °C level |
title_fullStr |
Effect on the Earth system of realizing a 1.5 °C warming climate target after overshooting to the 2 °C level |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effect on the Earth system of realizing a 1.5 °C warming climate target after overshooting to the 2 °C level |
title_sort |
effect on the earth system of realizing a 1.5 °c warming climate target after overshooting to the 2 °c level |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5199 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5199 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5199/pdf |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 14, issue 12, page 124063 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5199 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
124063 |
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1810478823467122688 |