Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave
Abstract During the summer of 2015, central Europe experienced a major heatwave that was preceded by anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the northern North Atlantic. Recent observation-based studies found a correlation between North Atlantic SST in spring and European summer temperat...
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33 2024-06-23T07:54:59+00:00 Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave Mecking, J V Drijfhout, S S Hirschi, J J-M Blaker, A T Natural Environment Research Council Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 14, issue 11, page 114035 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2019 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33 2024-06-10T04:11:30Z Abstract During the summer of 2015, central Europe experienced a major heatwave that was preceded by anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the northern North Atlantic. Recent observation-based studies found a correlation between North Atlantic SST in spring and European summer temperatures, suggesting potential for predictability. Here we show, by using a high-resolution climate model, that ocean temperature anomalies, in combination with matching atmospheric and sea-ice initial conditions were key to the development of the 2015 European heatwave. In a series of 30-member ensemble simulations we test different combinations of ocean temperature and salinity initial states versus non-initialised climatology, mediated in both ensembles by different atmospheric/sea-ice initial conditions, using a non-standard initialisation method without data-assimilation. With the best combination of the initial ocean, and matching atmosphere/sea-ice initial conditions, the ensemble mean temperature response over central Europe in this set-up equals 60% of the observed anomaly, with 6 out of 30 ensemble-members showing similar, or even larger surface air temperature anomalies than observed. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Sea ice IOP Publishing Environmental Research Letters 14 11 114035 |
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Abstract During the summer of 2015, central Europe experienced a major heatwave that was preceded by anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the northern North Atlantic. Recent observation-based studies found a correlation between North Atlantic SST in spring and European summer temperatures, suggesting potential for predictability. Here we show, by using a high-resolution climate model, that ocean temperature anomalies, in combination with matching atmospheric and sea-ice initial conditions were key to the development of the 2015 European heatwave. In a series of 30-member ensemble simulations we test different combinations of ocean temperature and salinity initial states versus non-initialised climatology, mediated in both ensembles by different atmospheric/sea-ice initial conditions, using a non-standard initialisation method without data-assimilation. With the best combination of the initial ocean, and matching atmosphere/sea-ice initial conditions, the ensemble mean temperature response over central Europe in this set-up equals 60% of the observed anomaly, with 6 out of 30 ensemble-members showing similar, or even larger surface air temperature anomalies than observed. |
author2 |
Natural Environment Research Council Horizon 2020 Framework Programme |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mecking, J V Drijfhout, S S Hirschi, J J-M Blaker, A T |
spellingShingle |
Mecking, J V Drijfhout, S S Hirschi, J J-M Blaker, A T Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave |
author_facet |
Mecking, J V Drijfhout, S S Hirschi, J J-M Blaker, A T |
author_sort |
Mecking, J V |
title |
Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave |
title_short |
Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave |
title_full |
Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave |
title_fullStr |
Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave |
title_sort |
ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 european heatwave |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33/pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 14, issue 11, page 114035 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
114035 |
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1802647362214035456 |