The creation of a regression model of the Earth’s pole motion with a feature of dynamic prediction
Abstract This work is dedicated to the modern and relevant problem of predicting the Earth’s pole motion. Using regression modelling, we form a complex model, consisting of a set of optimal mathematical structures each describing the dependence of its step’s remnant on time. The comparison between t...
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crioppubl:10.1088/1742-6596/1697/1/012029 2024-06-02T08:11:51+00:00 The creation of a regression model of the Earth’s pole motion with a feature of dynamic prediction Khairutdinova, A N Mubarakshina, R R Andreev, A O Nefedyev, Y A Demina, N Y 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1697/1/012029 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1697/1/012029/pdf https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1697/1/012029 unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Journal of Physics: Conference Series volume 1697, issue 1, page 012029 ISSN 1742-6588 1742-6596 journal-article 2020 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1697/1/012029 2024-05-07T14:00:52Z Abstract This work is dedicated to the modern and relevant problem of predicting the Earth’s pole motion. Using regression modelling, we form a complex model, consisting of a set of optimal mathematical structures each describing the dependence of its step’s remnant on time. The comparison between the results produced in this paper with other works on the study of North pole dynamics has shown that the models obtained using adaptive regression modelling (ARM) approach allows predicting the Y-coordinate more accurately while conserving the accuracy of the X-coordinate. Our results confirm the promise of using the so called adaptive dynamic regressions developed currently for describing the Earth’s pole position’s dynamics. The ARM-approach compared to the classic methods for analyzing time series has a number of advantages: 1) an expansion of the concept of a mathematical model’s structure describing a certain dynamics could be performed; 2) the oscillations’ harmonics stable in time are isolated; 3) the accuracy of predicting changes over a certain time period increases several times, which has an important practical value. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Pole IOP Publishing North Pole The ''Y'' ENVELOPE(-112.453,-112.453,57.591,57.591) Journal of Physics: Conference Series 1697 1 012029 |
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Abstract This work is dedicated to the modern and relevant problem of predicting the Earth’s pole motion. Using regression modelling, we form a complex model, consisting of a set of optimal mathematical structures each describing the dependence of its step’s remnant on time. The comparison between the results produced in this paper with other works on the study of North pole dynamics has shown that the models obtained using adaptive regression modelling (ARM) approach allows predicting the Y-coordinate more accurately while conserving the accuracy of the X-coordinate. Our results confirm the promise of using the so called adaptive dynamic regressions developed currently for describing the Earth’s pole position’s dynamics. The ARM-approach compared to the classic methods for analyzing time series has a number of advantages: 1) an expansion of the concept of a mathematical model’s structure describing a certain dynamics could be performed; 2) the oscillations’ harmonics stable in time are isolated; 3) the accuracy of predicting changes over a certain time period increases several times, which has an important practical value. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Khairutdinova, A N Mubarakshina, R R Andreev, A O Nefedyev, Y A Demina, N Y |
spellingShingle |
Khairutdinova, A N Mubarakshina, R R Andreev, A O Nefedyev, Y A Demina, N Y The creation of a regression model of the Earth’s pole motion with a feature of dynamic prediction |
author_facet |
Khairutdinova, A N Mubarakshina, R R Andreev, A O Nefedyev, Y A Demina, N Y |
author_sort |
Khairutdinova, A N |
title |
The creation of a regression model of the Earth’s pole motion with a feature of dynamic prediction |
title_short |
The creation of a regression model of the Earth’s pole motion with a feature of dynamic prediction |
title_full |
The creation of a regression model of the Earth’s pole motion with a feature of dynamic prediction |
title_fullStr |
The creation of a regression model of the Earth’s pole motion with a feature of dynamic prediction |
title_full_unstemmed |
The creation of a regression model of the Earth’s pole motion with a feature of dynamic prediction |
title_sort |
creation of a regression model of the earth’s pole motion with a feature of dynamic prediction |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1697/1/012029 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1697/1/012029/pdf https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1697/1/012029 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-112.453,-112.453,57.591,57.591) |
geographic |
North Pole The ''Y'' |
geographic_facet |
North Pole The ''Y'' |
genre |
North Pole |
genre_facet |
North Pole |
op_source |
Journal of Physics: Conference Series volume 1697, issue 1, page 012029 ISSN 1742-6588 1742-6596 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1697/1/012029 |
container_title |
Journal of Physics: Conference Series |
container_volume |
1697 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
012029 |
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1800758127420768256 |