The use of the Monte Carlo method for predicting environmental risk in construction zones
Abstract The article analyzes the problem of determining environmental risk. The author took into account the features of natural landscapes when choosing a model of environmental risk in order to predict the level of interaction of the construction project with the environment. The matrix of constr...
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crioppubl:10.1088/1742-6596/1614/1/012083 2024-06-02T08:02:29+00:00 The use of the Monte Carlo method for predicting environmental risk in construction zones Smirnova, E 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1614/1/012083 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1614/1/012083/pdf https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1614/1/012083 unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Journal of Physics: Conference Series volume 1614, issue 1, page 012083 ISSN 1742-6588 1742-6596 journal-article 2020 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1614/1/012083 2024-05-07T13:57:32Z Abstract The article analyzes the problem of determining environmental risk. The author took into account the features of natural landscapes when choosing a model of environmental risk in order to predict the level of interaction of the construction project with the environment. The matrix of construction zones distributions and the risk of environmental vulnerability are compiled on the bases of the study of the anthropogenic impact parameters on natural landscapes. Monte Carlo simulation method allows predicting the process of techno genesis relative to the natural environment within the limits of confidence interval. The industrial territories of the Far North and the regions equated to them are characterized by the highest probability and level of risk, as well as vulnerability. The impact of techno genesis on all four components of the environment (atmospheric air, hydrosphere, lithosphere and biosphere) in all areas of construction work normalization will continue to increase. This is indicated by trend graphs of the predicted values of anthropogenic impact within the industrial and residential zones. The quantitative characteristic of possible ecosystem “failures” as a result of anthropogenic interference is analyzed using a point scale. The worst-case scenario can be defined as post-catastrophic (ultra-high risk, emergency measures in emergency situations, score 26-30). The reliability of the simulated forecast is confirmed by the anthropogenic accident in Norilsk in June 2020, the largest and most unprecedented in the history of the Arctic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic norilsk IOP Publishing Arctic Norilsk ENVELOPE(88.203,88.203,69.354,69.354) Journal of Physics: Conference Series 1614 1 012083 |
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Abstract The article analyzes the problem of determining environmental risk. The author took into account the features of natural landscapes when choosing a model of environmental risk in order to predict the level of interaction of the construction project with the environment. The matrix of construction zones distributions and the risk of environmental vulnerability are compiled on the bases of the study of the anthropogenic impact parameters on natural landscapes. Monte Carlo simulation method allows predicting the process of techno genesis relative to the natural environment within the limits of confidence interval. The industrial territories of the Far North and the regions equated to them are characterized by the highest probability and level of risk, as well as vulnerability. The impact of techno genesis on all four components of the environment (atmospheric air, hydrosphere, lithosphere and biosphere) in all areas of construction work normalization will continue to increase. This is indicated by trend graphs of the predicted values of anthropogenic impact within the industrial and residential zones. The quantitative characteristic of possible ecosystem “failures” as a result of anthropogenic interference is analyzed using a point scale. The worst-case scenario can be defined as post-catastrophic (ultra-high risk, emergency measures in emergency situations, score 26-30). The reliability of the simulated forecast is confirmed by the anthropogenic accident in Norilsk in June 2020, the largest and most unprecedented in the history of the Arctic. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Smirnova, E |
spellingShingle |
Smirnova, E The use of the Monte Carlo method for predicting environmental risk in construction zones |
author_facet |
Smirnova, E |
author_sort |
Smirnova, E |
title |
The use of the Monte Carlo method for predicting environmental risk in construction zones |
title_short |
The use of the Monte Carlo method for predicting environmental risk in construction zones |
title_full |
The use of the Monte Carlo method for predicting environmental risk in construction zones |
title_fullStr |
The use of the Monte Carlo method for predicting environmental risk in construction zones |
title_full_unstemmed |
The use of the Monte Carlo method for predicting environmental risk in construction zones |
title_sort |
use of the monte carlo method for predicting environmental risk in construction zones |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1614/1/012083 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1614/1/012083/pdf https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1614/1/012083 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(88.203,88.203,69.354,69.354) |
geographic |
Arctic Norilsk |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Norilsk |
genre |
Arctic norilsk |
genre_facet |
Arctic norilsk |
op_source |
Journal of Physics: Conference Series volume 1614, issue 1, page 012083 ISSN 1742-6588 1742-6596 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1614/1/012083 |
container_title |
Journal of Physics: Conference Series |
container_volume |
1614 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
012083 |
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1800746966689251328 |