Dendrochronology Regression Models in Aufeis Formation Analysis

• Published in: Journal of Physics: Conference Series
• Main Authors: Pomortseva, A A, Pomortsev, O A, Rozhin, S S, Trofimtsev, Yu I
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: IOP Publishing 2019
• Subjects: Yakutia
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1391/1/012041; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1391/1/012041/pdf; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1391/1/012041

Abstract The paper examines the historical behaviour of such unique natural phenomena as the sheets of aufeis in the North East of Russia. They are studied using statistical methods for analyzing dendrochronological data. Dendrochronology is a scientific method based on comparing quantitative indicators of tree ring growth and the dynamics of aufeis formation in the past. Tree ring growth is an integral indicator which reflects the diversity of conditions in which trees grow and interact with the environment. Time series were obtained for the Ulakhan-Taryn and Buluus aufeis deposits located in the Middle Lena basin in Central Yakutia. Regression models were created using dendrochronological data, with the majority of the models being nonlinear. The sample mean, sample variance, and sample correlation coefficient were calculated for the time series. The regression model of the time series under study was represented as a combination of a non-random component, including the age trend and a climatic component, and a random component with zero expectation, which is the sum of factors unaccounted for, including autocorrelation. Depending on the locations where data were collected, both strong and moderate and weak dependencies of pine growth on aufeis influence were revealed. If there was strong or moderate aufeis influence, humidity had a minor impact on tree growth. If aufeis influence was weak, tree growth was moderately influenced by precipitation. There is a moderate dependence of tree growth on air temperature in all cases.