The Effect of the Arctic Oscillation on the Predictability of Mid-High Latitude Circulation in December
The impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the predictability of mid-high latitude circulation in December is analysed using a full set of hindcasts generated form the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.2 (BCC_AGCM2.2). The results showed that there is a relatio...
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crfrontiers:10.3389/fphy.2021.736085 2024-04-14T08:06:47+00:00 The Effect of the Arctic Oscillation on the Predictability of Mid-High Latitude Circulation in December Zheng, Zhihai Ban, Jin Li, Yongsheng 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2021.736085 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphy.2021.736085/full unknown Frontiers Media SA https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Frontiers in Physics volume 9 ISSN 2296-424X Physical and Theoretical Chemistry General Physics and Astronomy Mathematical Physics Materials Science (miscellaneous) Biophysics journal-article 2021 crfrontiers https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2021.736085 2024-03-19T09:17:18Z The impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the predictability of mid-high latitude circulation in December is analysed using a full set of hindcasts generated form the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.2 (BCC_AGCM2.2). The results showed that there is a relationship between the predictability of the model on the Eurasian mid-high latitude circulation and the phase of AO, with the highest predictability in the negative AO phase and the lowest predictability in the normal AO phase. Moreover, the difference of predictability exists at different lead times. The potential sources of the high predictability in the negative AO phase in the BCC_AGCM2.2 model were further diagnosed. It was found that the differences of predictability on the Eurasian mid-high latitude circulation also exist in different Arctic sea ice anomalies, and the model performs well in reproducing the response of Arctic sea ice on the AO. The predictability is higher when sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events occur, and strong SSW events tend to form a negative AO phase distribution in the Eurasian mid-high latitudes both in the observation and model. In addition, the model captured the blocking over the mid-high latitudes well, it may be related to the relatively long duration of the blocking. Changes in the AO will affect the blocking circulations over the mid-high latitudes, which partly explains the high predictability of the model in negative AO phases from the aspect of the internal atmospheric dynamics. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice Frontiers (Publisher) Arctic Frontiers in Physics 9 |
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topic |
Physical and Theoretical Chemistry General Physics and Astronomy Mathematical Physics Materials Science (miscellaneous) Biophysics |
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Physical and Theoretical Chemistry General Physics and Astronomy Mathematical Physics Materials Science (miscellaneous) Biophysics Zheng, Zhihai Ban, Jin Li, Yongsheng The Effect of the Arctic Oscillation on the Predictability of Mid-High Latitude Circulation in December |
topic_facet |
Physical and Theoretical Chemistry General Physics and Astronomy Mathematical Physics Materials Science (miscellaneous) Biophysics |
description |
The impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the predictability of mid-high latitude circulation in December is analysed using a full set of hindcasts generated form the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.2 (BCC_AGCM2.2). The results showed that there is a relationship between the predictability of the model on the Eurasian mid-high latitude circulation and the phase of AO, with the highest predictability in the negative AO phase and the lowest predictability in the normal AO phase. Moreover, the difference of predictability exists at different lead times. The potential sources of the high predictability in the negative AO phase in the BCC_AGCM2.2 model were further diagnosed. It was found that the differences of predictability on the Eurasian mid-high latitude circulation also exist in different Arctic sea ice anomalies, and the model performs well in reproducing the response of Arctic sea ice on the AO. The predictability is higher when sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events occur, and strong SSW events tend to form a negative AO phase distribution in the Eurasian mid-high latitudes both in the observation and model. In addition, the model captured the blocking over the mid-high latitudes well, it may be related to the relatively long duration of the blocking. Changes in the AO will affect the blocking circulations over the mid-high latitudes, which partly explains the high predictability of the model in negative AO phases from the aspect of the internal atmospheric dynamics. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zheng, Zhihai Ban, Jin Li, Yongsheng |
author_facet |
Zheng, Zhihai Ban, Jin Li, Yongsheng |
author_sort |
Zheng, Zhihai |
title |
The Effect of the Arctic Oscillation on the Predictability of Mid-High Latitude Circulation in December |
title_short |
The Effect of the Arctic Oscillation on the Predictability of Mid-High Latitude Circulation in December |
title_full |
The Effect of the Arctic Oscillation on the Predictability of Mid-High Latitude Circulation in December |
title_fullStr |
The Effect of the Arctic Oscillation on the Predictability of Mid-High Latitude Circulation in December |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Effect of the Arctic Oscillation on the Predictability of Mid-High Latitude Circulation in December |
title_sort |
effect of the arctic oscillation on the predictability of mid-high latitude circulation in december |
publisher |
Frontiers Media SA |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2021.736085 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphy.2021.736085/full |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Frontiers in Physics volume 9 ISSN 2296-424X |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2021.736085 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Physics |
container_volume |
9 |
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1796303972384899072 |