Optimization of the k-nearest-neighbors model for summer Arctic Sea ice prediction
The Arctic sea ice plays a significant role in climate-related processes and has a considerable effect on humans, however accurately predicting the Arctic sea ice concentration is still challenging. Recently, with the rise and development of artificial intelligence, big data technology, machine lear...
Published in: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
Frontiers Media SA
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1260047 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1260047/full |
id |
crfrontiers:10.3389/fmars.2023.1260047 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crfrontiers:10.3389/fmars.2023.1260047 2024-02-11T10:00:10+01:00 Optimization of the k-nearest-neighbors model for summer Arctic Sea ice prediction Lin, Yongcheng Yang, Qinghua Li, Xuewei Yang, Chao-Yuan Wang, Yiguo Wang, Jiuke Liu, Jingwen Chen, Sizhe Liu, Jiping 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1260047 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1260047/full unknown Frontiers Media SA https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Frontiers in Marine Science volume 10 ISSN 2296-7745 Ocean Engineering Water Science and Technology Aquatic Science Global and Planetary Change Oceanography journal-article 2023 crfrontiers https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1260047 2024-01-26T09:56:44Z The Arctic sea ice plays a significant role in climate-related processes and has a considerable effect on humans, however accurately predicting the Arctic sea ice concentration is still challenging. Recently, with the rise and development of artificial intelligence, big data technology, machine learning has been widely used in the field of sea ice prediction. In this study, we utilized a sea ice concentration dataset obtained from satellite remote sensing and applied the k-nearest-neighbors (Ice-kNN) machine learning model to forecast the summer Arctic sea ice concentration and extent on 122 days prediction. Based on the physical characteristics of summer sea ice, different algorithms are employed to optimize the prediction model. A drift-ice correction algorithm is designed to address the unrealistic drift ice around the sea ice edge, and a distance function combined with the spatial pattern is proposed to enhance similarity detection. Deseasonalized and detrended sea ice datasets and an expanded training library are also utilized to improve model performance. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis reveals a positive impact of net surface heat flux on sea ice prediction. The modified Ice-kNN model outperforms climatological and anomaly persistence predictions, demonstrating its applicability to predicting summer Arctic sea ice. The September sea ice extent hindcasts of the modified Ice-kNN model are compared to a variety of models submitted to the Sea Ice Prediction Network, underscoring its potential to improve predictive skill for Arctic sea ice. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice Frontiers (Publisher) Arctic Frontiers in Marine Science 10 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Frontiers (Publisher) |
op_collection_id |
crfrontiers |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Ocean Engineering Water Science and Technology Aquatic Science Global and Planetary Change Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
Ocean Engineering Water Science and Technology Aquatic Science Global and Planetary Change Oceanography Lin, Yongcheng Yang, Qinghua Li, Xuewei Yang, Chao-Yuan Wang, Yiguo Wang, Jiuke Liu, Jingwen Chen, Sizhe Liu, Jiping Optimization of the k-nearest-neighbors model for summer Arctic Sea ice prediction |
topic_facet |
Ocean Engineering Water Science and Technology Aquatic Science Global and Planetary Change Oceanography |
description |
The Arctic sea ice plays a significant role in climate-related processes and has a considerable effect on humans, however accurately predicting the Arctic sea ice concentration is still challenging. Recently, with the rise and development of artificial intelligence, big data technology, machine learning has been widely used in the field of sea ice prediction. In this study, we utilized a sea ice concentration dataset obtained from satellite remote sensing and applied the k-nearest-neighbors (Ice-kNN) machine learning model to forecast the summer Arctic sea ice concentration and extent on 122 days prediction. Based on the physical characteristics of summer sea ice, different algorithms are employed to optimize the prediction model. A drift-ice correction algorithm is designed to address the unrealistic drift ice around the sea ice edge, and a distance function combined with the spatial pattern is proposed to enhance similarity detection. Deseasonalized and detrended sea ice datasets and an expanded training library are also utilized to improve model performance. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis reveals a positive impact of net surface heat flux on sea ice prediction. The modified Ice-kNN model outperforms climatological and anomaly persistence predictions, demonstrating its applicability to predicting summer Arctic sea ice. The September sea ice extent hindcasts of the modified Ice-kNN model are compared to a variety of models submitted to the Sea Ice Prediction Network, underscoring its potential to improve predictive skill for Arctic sea ice. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lin, Yongcheng Yang, Qinghua Li, Xuewei Yang, Chao-Yuan Wang, Yiguo Wang, Jiuke Liu, Jingwen Chen, Sizhe Liu, Jiping |
author_facet |
Lin, Yongcheng Yang, Qinghua Li, Xuewei Yang, Chao-Yuan Wang, Yiguo Wang, Jiuke Liu, Jingwen Chen, Sizhe Liu, Jiping |
author_sort |
Lin, Yongcheng |
title |
Optimization of the k-nearest-neighbors model for summer Arctic Sea ice prediction |
title_short |
Optimization of the k-nearest-neighbors model for summer Arctic Sea ice prediction |
title_full |
Optimization of the k-nearest-neighbors model for summer Arctic Sea ice prediction |
title_fullStr |
Optimization of the k-nearest-neighbors model for summer Arctic Sea ice prediction |
title_full_unstemmed |
Optimization of the k-nearest-neighbors model for summer Arctic Sea ice prediction |
title_sort |
optimization of the k-nearest-neighbors model for summer arctic sea ice prediction |
publisher |
Frontiers Media SA |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1260047 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1260047/full |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Frontiers in Marine Science volume 10 ISSN 2296-7745 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1260047 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
10 |
_version_ |
1790595876985503744 |