Forecast uncertainty and ensemble spread in surface currents from a regional ocean model
An operational ocean Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the coastal seas off Northern Norway is evaluated by comparing with high-frequency radar current speed estimates. The EPS is composed of 24 members for which the ocean current is not perturbed nor constrained but forced with an atmosphere ens...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1177337 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1177337/full |
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crfrontiers:10.3389/fmars.2023.1177337 2024-02-11T10:07:08+01:00 Forecast uncertainty and ensemble spread in surface currents from a regional ocean model Idžanović, Martina Rikardsen, Edel S. U. Röhrs, Johannes Norges Forskningsråd 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1177337 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1177337/full unknown Frontiers Media SA https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Frontiers in Marine Science volume 10 ISSN 2296-7745 Ocean Engineering Water Science and Technology Aquatic Science Global and Planetary Change Oceanography journal-article 2023 crfrontiers https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1177337 2024-01-26T09:57:59Z An operational ocean Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the coastal seas off Northern Norway is evaluated by comparing with high-frequency radar current speed estimates. The EPS is composed of 24 members for which the ocean current is not perturbed nor constrained but forced with an atmosphere ensemble. The ocean ensemble spread stems from (i) accumulated differences in wind-forcing history and (ii) constraints of sea surface temperature by data assimilation. The intention of the ensemble is to reflect the actual uncertainty in initial conditions, which are largely unknown in terms of mesoscale circulation. We find a low but pronounced predictive skill in surface currents along with a good statistic skill. Additionally, current speeds show deterioration of the validation metrics over the forecast range. Further, high-resolution wind forcing seems to provide better forecast skill in currents compared to lower resolution forcing. In general, the ensemble exhibits the ability to predict forecast uncertainty. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northern Norway Frontiers (Publisher) Norway Frontiers in Marine Science 10 |
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topic |
Ocean Engineering Water Science and Technology Aquatic Science Global and Planetary Change Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
Ocean Engineering Water Science and Technology Aquatic Science Global and Planetary Change Oceanography Idžanović, Martina Rikardsen, Edel S. U. Röhrs, Johannes Forecast uncertainty and ensemble spread in surface currents from a regional ocean model |
topic_facet |
Ocean Engineering Water Science and Technology Aquatic Science Global and Planetary Change Oceanography |
description |
An operational ocean Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the coastal seas off Northern Norway is evaluated by comparing with high-frequency radar current speed estimates. The EPS is composed of 24 members for which the ocean current is not perturbed nor constrained but forced with an atmosphere ensemble. The ocean ensemble spread stems from (i) accumulated differences in wind-forcing history and (ii) constraints of sea surface temperature by data assimilation. The intention of the ensemble is to reflect the actual uncertainty in initial conditions, which are largely unknown in terms of mesoscale circulation. We find a low but pronounced predictive skill in surface currents along with a good statistic skill. Additionally, current speeds show deterioration of the validation metrics over the forecast range. Further, high-resolution wind forcing seems to provide better forecast skill in currents compared to lower resolution forcing. In general, the ensemble exhibits the ability to predict forecast uncertainty. |
author2 |
Norges Forskningsråd |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Idžanović, Martina Rikardsen, Edel S. U. Röhrs, Johannes |
author_facet |
Idžanović, Martina Rikardsen, Edel S. U. Röhrs, Johannes |
author_sort |
Idžanović, Martina |
title |
Forecast uncertainty and ensemble spread in surface currents from a regional ocean model |
title_short |
Forecast uncertainty and ensemble spread in surface currents from a regional ocean model |
title_full |
Forecast uncertainty and ensemble spread in surface currents from a regional ocean model |
title_fullStr |
Forecast uncertainty and ensemble spread in surface currents from a regional ocean model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecast uncertainty and ensemble spread in surface currents from a regional ocean model |
title_sort |
forecast uncertainty and ensemble spread in surface currents from a regional ocean model |
publisher |
Frontiers Media SA |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1177337 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1177337/full |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
Northern Norway |
genre_facet |
Northern Norway |
op_source |
Frontiers in Marine Science volume 10 ISSN 2296-7745 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1177337 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
10 |
_version_ |
1790605280752435200 |