Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the North-West European seas
The pre-eutrophic state of marine waters is generally not well known, complicating target setting for management measures to combat eutrophication. We present results from an OSPAR ICG-EMO model assessment to simulate the pre-eutrophic state of North-East Atlantic marine waters. Using an ecosystem m...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951/full |
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crfrontiers:10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951 2024-05-19T07:45:38+00:00 Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the North-West European seas van Leeuwen, Sonja M. Lenhart, Hermann-J. Prins, Theo C. Blauw, Anouk Desmit, Xavier Fernand, Liam Friedland, Rene Kerimoglu, Onur Lacroix, Genevieve van der Linden, Annelotte Lefebvre, Alain van der Molen, Johan Plus, Martin Ruvalcaba Baroni, Itzel Silva, Tiago Stegert, Christoph Troost, Tineke A. Vilmin, Lauriane 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951/full unknown Frontiers Media SA https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Frontiers in Marine Science volume 10 ISSN 2296-7745 journal-article 2023 crfrontiers https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951 2024-05-01T06:50:39Z The pre-eutrophic state of marine waters is generally not well known, complicating target setting for management measures to combat eutrophication. We present results from an OSPAR ICG-EMO model assessment to simulate the pre-eutrophic state of North-East Atlantic marine waters. Using an ecosystem model ensemble combined with an observation-based weighting method we derive sophisticated estimates for key eutrophication indicators. Eight modelling centres applied the same riverine nutrient loads, atmospheric nutrient deposition rates and boundary conditions to their specific model set-up to ensure comparability. The pre-eutrophic state was defined as a historic scenario of estimated nutrient inputs (riverine, atmospheric) at around the year 1900, before the invention and widespread use of industrial fertilizers. The period 2009-2014 was used by all participants to simulate both the current state of eutrophication and the pre-eutrophic scenario, to ensure that differences are solely due to the changes in nutrient inputs between the scenarios. Mean values were reported for winter dissolved inorganic nutrients and total nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus) and the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio, and for growing season chlorophyll, chlorophyll 90 th percentile, near-bed oxygen minimum and net phytoplankton production on the level of the OSPAR assessment areas. Results showed distinctly lower nutrient concentrations and nitrogen to phosphorus ratio’s in coastal areas under pre-eutrophic conditions compared to current conditions (except in the Meuse Plume and Seine Plume areas). Chlorophyll concentrations were estimated to be as much as ~40% lower in some areas, as were dissolved inorganic phosphorus levels. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen levels were found to be up to 60% lower in certain assessment areas. The weighted average approach reduced model disparities, and delivered pre-eutrophic concentrations in each assessment area. Our results open the possibility to establish reference values for indicators of eutrophication ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North East Atlantic Frontiers (Publisher) Frontiers in Marine Science 10 |
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description |
The pre-eutrophic state of marine waters is generally not well known, complicating target setting for management measures to combat eutrophication. We present results from an OSPAR ICG-EMO model assessment to simulate the pre-eutrophic state of North-East Atlantic marine waters. Using an ecosystem model ensemble combined with an observation-based weighting method we derive sophisticated estimates for key eutrophication indicators. Eight modelling centres applied the same riverine nutrient loads, atmospheric nutrient deposition rates and boundary conditions to their specific model set-up to ensure comparability. The pre-eutrophic state was defined as a historic scenario of estimated nutrient inputs (riverine, atmospheric) at around the year 1900, before the invention and widespread use of industrial fertilizers. The period 2009-2014 was used by all participants to simulate both the current state of eutrophication and the pre-eutrophic scenario, to ensure that differences are solely due to the changes in nutrient inputs between the scenarios. Mean values were reported for winter dissolved inorganic nutrients and total nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus) and the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio, and for growing season chlorophyll, chlorophyll 90 th percentile, near-bed oxygen minimum and net phytoplankton production on the level of the OSPAR assessment areas. Results showed distinctly lower nutrient concentrations and nitrogen to phosphorus ratio’s in coastal areas under pre-eutrophic conditions compared to current conditions (except in the Meuse Plume and Seine Plume areas). Chlorophyll concentrations were estimated to be as much as ~40% lower in some areas, as were dissolved inorganic phosphorus levels. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen levels were found to be up to 60% lower in certain assessment areas. The weighted average approach reduced model disparities, and delivered pre-eutrophic concentrations in each assessment area. Our results open the possibility to establish reference values for indicators of eutrophication ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
van Leeuwen, Sonja M. Lenhart, Hermann-J. Prins, Theo C. Blauw, Anouk Desmit, Xavier Fernand, Liam Friedland, Rene Kerimoglu, Onur Lacroix, Genevieve van der Linden, Annelotte Lefebvre, Alain van der Molen, Johan Plus, Martin Ruvalcaba Baroni, Itzel Silva, Tiago Stegert, Christoph Troost, Tineke A. Vilmin, Lauriane |
spellingShingle |
van Leeuwen, Sonja M. Lenhart, Hermann-J. Prins, Theo C. Blauw, Anouk Desmit, Xavier Fernand, Liam Friedland, Rene Kerimoglu, Onur Lacroix, Genevieve van der Linden, Annelotte Lefebvre, Alain van der Molen, Johan Plus, Martin Ruvalcaba Baroni, Itzel Silva, Tiago Stegert, Christoph Troost, Tineke A. Vilmin, Lauriane Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the North-West European seas |
author_facet |
van Leeuwen, Sonja M. Lenhart, Hermann-J. Prins, Theo C. Blauw, Anouk Desmit, Xavier Fernand, Liam Friedland, Rene Kerimoglu, Onur Lacroix, Genevieve van der Linden, Annelotte Lefebvre, Alain van der Molen, Johan Plus, Martin Ruvalcaba Baroni, Itzel Silva, Tiago Stegert, Christoph Troost, Tineke A. Vilmin, Lauriane |
author_sort |
van Leeuwen, Sonja M. |
title |
Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the North-West European seas |
title_short |
Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the North-West European seas |
title_full |
Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the North-West European seas |
title_fullStr |
Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the North-West European seas |
title_full_unstemmed |
Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the North-West European seas |
title_sort |
deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the north-west european seas |
publisher |
Frontiers Media SA |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951/full |
genre |
North East Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North East Atlantic |
op_source |
Frontiers in Marine Science volume 10 ISSN 2296-7745 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
10 |
_version_ |
1799485737355182080 |