Attribution of Plastic Sources Using Bayesian Inference: Application to River-Sourced Floating Plastic in the South Atlantic Ocean
Most marine plastic pollution originates on land. However, once plastic is at sea, it is difficult to determine its origin. Here we present a Bayesian inference framework to compute the probability that a piece of plastic found at sea came from a particular source. This framework combines informatio...
Published in: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.925437 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.925437/full |
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crfrontiers:10.3389/fmars.2022.925437 2024-09-30T14:43:23+00:00 Attribution of Plastic Sources Using Bayesian Inference: Application to River-Sourced Floating Plastic in the South Atlantic Ocean Pierard, Claudio M. Bassotto, Deborah Meirer, Florian van Sebille, Erik Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.925437 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.925437/full unknown Frontiers Media SA https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Frontiers in Marine Science volume 9 ISSN 2296-7745 journal-article 2022 crfrontiers https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.925437 2024-09-17T04:11:47Z Most marine plastic pollution originates on land. However, once plastic is at sea, it is difficult to determine its origin. Here we present a Bayesian inference framework to compute the probability that a piece of plastic found at sea came from a particular source. This framework combines information about plastic emitted by rivers with a Lagrangian simulation, and yields maps indicating the probability that a particle sampled somewhere in the ocean originates from a particular river source. We showcase the framework for floating river-sourced plastic released into the South Atlantic Ocean. We computed the probability as a function of the particle age at three locations, showing how probabilities vary according to the location and age. We computed the source probability of beached particles, showing that plastic found at a given latitude is most likely to come from the closest river source. This framework lays the basis for source attribution of marine plastic. Article in Journal/Newspaper South Atlantic Ocean Frontiers (Publisher) Frontiers in Marine Science 9 |
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Most marine plastic pollution originates on land. However, once plastic is at sea, it is difficult to determine its origin. Here we present a Bayesian inference framework to compute the probability that a piece of plastic found at sea came from a particular source. This framework combines information about plastic emitted by rivers with a Lagrangian simulation, and yields maps indicating the probability that a particle sampled somewhere in the ocean originates from a particular river source. We showcase the framework for floating river-sourced plastic released into the South Atlantic Ocean. We computed the probability as a function of the particle age at three locations, showing how probabilities vary according to the location and age. We computed the source probability of beached particles, showing that plastic found at a given latitude is most likely to come from the closest river source. This framework lays the basis for source attribution of marine plastic. |
author2 |
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pierard, Claudio M. Bassotto, Deborah Meirer, Florian van Sebille, Erik |
spellingShingle |
Pierard, Claudio M. Bassotto, Deborah Meirer, Florian van Sebille, Erik Attribution of Plastic Sources Using Bayesian Inference: Application to River-Sourced Floating Plastic in the South Atlantic Ocean |
author_facet |
Pierard, Claudio M. Bassotto, Deborah Meirer, Florian van Sebille, Erik |
author_sort |
Pierard, Claudio M. |
title |
Attribution of Plastic Sources Using Bayesian Inference: Application to River-Sourced Floating Plastic in the South Atlantic Ocean |
title_short |
Attribution of Plastic Sources Using Bayesian Inference: Application to River-Sourced Floating Plastic in the South Atlantic Ocean |
title_full |
Attribution of Plastic Sources Using Bayesian Inference: Application to River-Sourced Floating Plastic in the South Atlantic Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Attribution of Plastic Sources Using Bayesian Inference: Application to River-Sourced Floating Plastic in the South Atlantic Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Attribution of Plastic Sources Using Bayesian Inference: Application to River-Sourced Floating Plastic in the South Atlantic Ocean |
title_sort |
attribution of plastic sources using bayesian inference: application to river-sourced floating plastic in the south atlantic ocean |
publisher |
Frontiers Media SA |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.925437 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.925437/full |
genre |
South Atlantic Ocean |
genre_facet |
South Atlantic Ocean |
op_source |
Frontiers in Marine Science volume 9 ISSN 2296-7745 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.925437 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
9 |
_version_ |
1811645187607232512 |