Present and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysis
Climate change poses one of the most significant challenges to conserve biodiversity, especially in tropical dry islands, as is the case of Cabo Verde (northeast Atlantic Ocean). This archipelago has a low percentage of forest cover and hosts only seven native tree species, among them, Faidherbia al...
Published in: | Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
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2023
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2023.1057852 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1057852/full |
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crfrontiers:10.3389/fevo.2023.1057852 2024-09-09T19:59:07+00:00 Present and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysis Varela, Danilson Romeiras, Maria M. Silva, Luís 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2023.1057852 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1057852/full unknown Frontiers Media SA https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution volume 11 ISSN 2296-701X journal-article 2023 crfrontiers https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2023.1057852 2024-08-20T04:05:37Z Climate change poses one of the most significant challenges to conserve biodiversity, especially in tropical dry islands, as is the case of Cabo Verde (northeast Atlantic Ocean). This archipelago has a low percentage of forest cover and hosts only seven native tree species, among them, Faidherbia albida (Delile) A.Chev. (Fabaceae). Therefore, protective afforestation is extremely important in Cabo Verde, one of the most vulnerable West African countries to climate change. With this work, we aimed to estimate the current distribution and potential shifts in suitable areas for F. albida under climate change, using species distribution models (i.e., random forest, generalized linear and additive models), covering its distribution range in Cabo Verde and mainland Africa. The best model was then projected for the studied area, at two different slice times, using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Based on current bioclimatic variables, we estimated that almost two thirds of Cabo Verde’s territory is highly suitable for F. albida , which contrasts with its current occurrence. By overlaying the present habitat suitability with land use and land cover data, we concluded that habitat availability and suitability could be constrained by that factor. On average, the predicted suitable habitat for future distributions gradually decreases by 2080 under both scenarios compared with the current, with a smaller effect of RCP4.5 than of RCP8.5. Local authorities can benefit from this research and develop actions to promote sustainable reforestation in Cabo Verde, which should include native tree species that are best adapted to the local climate and could thus contribute to mitigate the effects of climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northeast Atlantic Frontiers (Publisher) Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 11 |
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Climate change poses one of the most significant challenges to conserve biodiversity, especially in tropical dry islands, as is the case of Cabo Verde (northeast Atlantic Ocean). This archipelago has a low percentage of forest cover and hosts only seven native tree species, among them, Faidherbia albida (Delile) A.Chev. (Fabaceae). Therefore, protective afforestation is extremely important in Cabo Verde, one of the most vulnerable West African countries to climate change. With this work, we aimed to estimate the current distribution and potential shifts in suitable areas for F. albida under climate change, using species distribution models (i.e., random forest, generalized linear and additive models), covering its distribution range in Cabo Verde and mainland Africa. The best model was then projected for the studied area, at two different slice times, using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Based on current bioclimatic variables, we estimated that almost two thirds of Cabo Verde’s territory is highly suitable for F. albida , which contrasts with its current occurrence. By overlaying the present habitat suitability with land use and land cover data, we concluded that habitat availability and suitability could be constrained by that factor. On average, the predicted suitable habitat for future distributions gradually decreases by 2080 under both scenarios compared with the current, with a smaller effect of RCP4.5 than of RCP8.5. Local authorities can benefit from this research and develop actions to promote sustainable reforestation in Cabo Verde, which should include native tree species that are best adapted to the local climate and could thus contribute to mitigate the effects of climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Varela, Danilson Romeiras, Maria M. Silva, Luís |
spellingShingle |
Varela, Danilson Romeiras, Maria M. Silva, Luís Present and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysis |
author_facet |
Varela, Danilson Romeiras, Maria M. Silva, Luís |
author_sort |
Varela, Danilson |
title |
Present and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysis |
title_short |
Present and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysis |
title_full |
Present and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysis |
title_fullStr |
Present and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Present and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysis |
title_sort |
present and future distribution of faidherbia albida in cabo verde as revealed by climatic modelling and lulc analysis |
publisher |
Frontiers Media SA |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2023.1057852 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1057852/full |
genre |
Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northeast Atlantic |
op_source |
Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution volume 11 ISSN 2296-701X |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2023.1057852 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
11 |
_version_ |
1809930266444038144 |