Simulating Growth and Competition on Wet and Waterlogged Soils in a Forest Landscape Model
Changes in CO 2 concentration and climate are likely to alter disturbance regimes and competitive outcomes among tree species, which ultimately can result in shifts of species and biome boundaries. Such changes are already evident in high latitude forests, where waterlogged soils produced by topogra...
Published in: | Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2020.598775 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2020.598775/full |
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crfrontiers:10.3389/fevo.2020.598775 2024-02-11T10:07:52+01:00 Simulating Growth and Competition on Wet and Waterlogged Soils in a Forest Landscape Model Gustafson, Eric J. Miranda, Brian R. Shvidenko, Anatoly Z. Sturtevant, Brian R. Russian Science Foundation 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2020.598775 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2020.598775/full unknown Frontiers Media SA https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution volume 8 ISSN 2296-701X Ecology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics journal-article 2020 crfrontiers https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2020.598775 2024-01-26T10:08:30Z Changes in CO 2 concentration and climate are likely to alter disturbance regimes and competitive outcomes among tree species, which ultimately can result in shifts of species and biome boundaries. Such changes are already evident in high latitude forests, where waterlogged soils produced by topography, surficial geology, and permafrost are an important driver of forest dynamics. Predicting such effects under the novel conditions of the future requires models with direct and mechanistic links of abiotic drivers to growth and competition. We enhanced such a forest landscape model (PnET-Succession in LANDIS-II) to allow simulation of waterlogged soils and their effects on tree growth and competition. We formally tested how these modifications alter water balance on wetland and permafrost sites, and their effect on tree growth and competition. We applied the model to evaluate its promise for mechanistically simulating species range expansion and contraction under climate change across a latitudinal gradient in Siberian Russia. We found that higher emissions scenarios permitted range expansions that were quicker and allowed a greater diversity of invading species, especially at the highest latitudes, and that disturbance hastened range shifts by overcoming the natural inertia of established ecological communities. The primary driver of range advances to the north was altered hydrology related to thawing permafrost, followed by temperature effects on growth. Range contractions from the south (extirpations) were slower and less tied to emissions or latitude, and were driven by inability to compete with invaders, or disturbance. An important non-intuitive result was that some extant species were killed off by extreme cold events projected under climate change as greater weather extremes occurred over the next 30 years, and this had important effects on subsequent successional trajectories. The mechanistic linkages between climate and soil water dynamics in this forest landscape model produced tight links between ... Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Frontiers (Publisher) Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 8 |
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Ecology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics |
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Ecology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Gustafson, Eric J. Miranda, Brian R. Shvidenko, Anatoly Z. Sturtevant, Brian R. Simulating Growth and Competition on Wet and Waterlogged Soils in a Forest Landscape Model |
topic_facet |
Ecology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics |
description |
Changes in CO 2 concentration and climate are likely to alter disturbance regimes and competitive outcomes among tree species, which ultimately can result in shifts of species and biome boundaries. Such changes are already evident in high latitude forests, where waterlogged soils produced by topography, surficial geology, and permafrost are an important driver of forest dynamics. Predicting such effects under the novel conditions of the future requires models with direct and mechanistic links of abiotic drivers to growth and competition. We enhanced such a forest landscape model (PnET-Succession in LANDIS-II) to allow simulation of waterlogged soils and their effects on tree growth and competition. We formally tested how these modifications alter water balance on wetland and permafrost sites, and their effect on tree growth and competition. We applied the model to evaluate its promise for mechanistically simulating species range expansion and contraction under climate change across a latitudinal gradient in Siberian Russia. We found that higher emissions scenarios permitted range expansions that were quicker and allowed a greater diversity of invading species, especially at the highest latitudes, and that disturbance hastened range shifts by overcoming the natural inertia of established ecological communities. The primary driver of range advances to the north was altered hydrology related to thawing permafrost, followed by temperature effects on growth. Range contractions from the south (extirpations) were slower and less tied to emissions or latitude, and were driven by inability to compete with invaders, or disturbance. An important non-intuitive result was that some extant species were killed off by extreme cold events projected under climate change as greater weather extremes occurred over the next 30 years, and this had important effects on subsequent successional trajectories. The mechanistic linkages between climate and soil water dynamics in this forest landscape model produced tight links between ... |
author2 |
Russian Science Foundation |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gustafson, Eric J. Miranda, Brian R. Shvidenko, Anatoly Z. Sturtevant, Brian R. |
author_facet |
Gustafson, Eric J. Miranda, Brian R. Shvidenko, Anatoly Z. Sturtevant, Brian R. |
author_sort |
Gustafson, Eric J. |
title |
Simulating Growth and Competition on Wet and Waterlogged Soils in a Forest Landscape Model |
title_short |
Simulating Growth and Competition on Wet and Waterlogged Soils in a Forest Landscape Model |
title_full |
Simulating Growth and Competition on Wet and Waterlogged Soils in a Forest Landscape Model |
title_fullStr |
Simulating Growth and Competition on Wet and Waterlogged Soils in a Forest Landscape Model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulating Growth and Competition on Wet and Waterlogged Soils in a Forest Landscape Model |
title_sort |
simulating growth and competition on wet and waterlogged soils in a forest landscape model |
publisher |
Frontiers Media SA |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2020.598775 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2020.598775/full |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution volume 8 ISSN 2296-701X |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2020.598775 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
8 |
_version_ |
1790606679137583104 |