2022 real-time Hurricane forecasts from an experimental version of the Hurricane analysis and forecast system (HAFSV0.3S)
During the 2022 hurricane season, real-time forecasts were conducted using an experimental version of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). The version of HAFS detailed in this paper (HAFSV0.3S, hereafter HAFS-S) featured the moving nest recently developed at NOAA AOML, and also model p...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1264969 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2023.1264969/full |
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crfrontiers:10.3389/feart.2023.1264969 2024-09-30T14:39:41+00:00 2022 real-time Hurricane forecasts from an experimental version of the Hurricane analysis and forecast system (HAFSV0.3S) Hazelton, Andrew Alaka, Ghassan J. Gramer, Lew Ramstrom, William Ditchek, Sarah Chen, Xiaomin Liu, Bin Zhang, Zhan Zhu, Lin Wang, Weiguo Thomas, Biju Shin, JungHoon Wang, Chuan-Kai Kim, Hyun-Sook Zhang, Xuejin Mehra, Avichal Marks, Frank Gopalakrishnan, Sundararaman National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1264969 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2023.1264969/full unknown Frontiers Media SA https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Frontiers in Earth Science volume 11 ISSN 2296-6463 journal-article 2023 crfrontiers https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1264969 2024-09-10T04:05:38Z During the 2022 hurricane season, real-time forecasts were conducted using an experimental version of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). The version of HAFS detailed in this paper (HAFSV0.3S, hereafter HAFS-S) featured the moving nest recently developed at NOAA AOML, and also model physics upgrades: TC-specific modifications to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and introduction of the Thompson microphysics scheme. The real-time forecasts covered a large dataset of cases across the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific 2022 hurricane seasons, providing an opportunity to evaluate this version of HAFS ahead of planned operational implementation of a similar version in 2023. The track forecast results show that HAFS-S outperformed the 2022 version of the operational HWRF model in the Atlantic, and was the best of several regional hurricane models in the eastern North Pacific for track. The intensity results were more mixed, with a dropoff in skill at Days 4–5 in the Atlantic but increased skill in the eastern North Pacific. HAFS-S also showed some larger errors than the long-time operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model in the radius of 34-knot wind, but other radii metrics are improved. Detailed analysis of Hurricane Ian in the Atlantic highlights both the strengths of HAFS and opportunities for further development and improvement. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Frontiers (Publisher) Pacific Frontiers in Earth Science 11 |
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During the 2022 hurricane season, real-time forecasts were conducted using an experimental version of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). The version of HAFS detailed in this paper (HAFSV0.3S, hereafter HAFS-S) featured the moving nest recently developed at NOAA AOML, and also model physics upgrades: TC-specific modifications to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and introduction of the Thompson microphysics scheme. The real-time forecasts covered a large dataset of cases across the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific 2022 hurricane seasons, providing an opportunity to evaluate this version of HAFS ahead of planned operational implementation of a similar version in 2023. The track forecast results show that HAFS-S outperformed the 2022 version of the operational HWRF model in the Atlantic, and was the best of several regional hurricane models in the eastern North Pacific for track. The intensity results were more mixed, with a dropoff in skill at Days 4–5 in the Atlantic but increased skill in the eastern North Pacific. HAFS-S also showed some larger errors than the long-time operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model in the radius of 34-knot wind, but other radii metrics are improved. Detailed analysis of Hurricane Ian in the Atlantic highlights both the strengths of HAFS and opportunities for further development and improvement. |
author2 |
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hazelton, Andrew Alaka, Ghassan J. Gramer, Lew Ramstrom, William Ditchek, Sarah Chen, Xiaomin Liu, Bin Zhang, Zhan Zhu, Lin Wang, Weiguo Thomas, Biju Shin, JungHoon Wang, Chuan-Kai Kim, Hyun-Sook Zhang, Xuejin Mehra, Avichal Marks, Frank Gopalakrishnan, Sundararaman |
spellingShingle |
Hazelton, Andrew Alaka, Ghassan J. Gramer, Lew Ramstrom, William Ditchek, Sarah Chen, Xiaomin Liu, Bin Zhang, Zhan Zhu, Lin Wang, Weiguo Thomas, Biju Shin, JungHoon Wang, Chuan-Kai Kim, Hyun-Sook Zhang, Xuejin Mehra, Avichal Marks, Frank Gopalakrishnan, Sundararaman 2022 real-time Hurricane forecasts from an experimental version of the Hurricane analysis and forecast system (HAFSV0.3S) |
author_facet |
Hazelton, Andrew Alaka, Ghassan J. Gramer, Lew Ramstrom, William Ditchek, Sarah Chen, Xiaomin Liu, Bin Zhang, Zhan Zhu, Lin Wang, Weiguo Thomas, Biju Shin, JungHoon Wang, Chuan-Kai Kim, Hyun-Sook Zhang, Xuejin Mehra, Avichal Marks, Frank Gopalakrishnan, Sundararaman |
author_sort |
Hazelton, Andrew |
title |
2022 real-time Hurricane forecasts from an experimental version of the Hurricane analysis and forecast system (HAFSV0.3S) |
title_short |
2022 real-time Hurricane forecasts from an experimental version of the Hurricane analysis and forecast system (HAFSV0.3S) |
title_full |
2022 real-time Hurricane forecasts from an experimental version of the Hurricane analysis and forecast system (HAFSV0.3S) |
title_fullStr |
2022 real-time Hurricane forecasts from an experimental version of the Hurricane analysis and forecast system (HAFSV0.3S) |
title_full_unstemmed |
2022 real-time Hurricane forecasts from an experimental version of the Hurricane analysis and forecast system (HAFSV0.3S) |
title_sort |
2022 real-time hurricane forecasts from an experimental version of the hurricane analysis and forecast system (hafsv0.3s) |
publisher |
Frontiers Media SA |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1264969 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2023.1264969/full |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Frontiers in Earth Science volume 11 ISSN 2296-6463 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1264969 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Earth Science |
container_volume |
11 |
_version_ |
1811642289768890368 |