Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models
As a step towards understanding the fundamental drivers of polar climate change, we evaluate contributions to polar warming and its seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) as compared with CMIP5. CMIP6 models broadly capture the observed pattern...
Published in: | Frontiers in Earth Science |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
Frontiers Media SA
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.710036 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.710036/full |
id |
crfrontiers:10.3389/feart.2021.710036 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crfrontiers:10.3389/feart.2021.710036 2024-09-30T14:21:52+00:00 Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models Hahn, L. C. Armour, K. C. Zelinka, M. D. Bitz, C. M. Donohoe, A. 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.710036 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.710036/full unknown Frontiers Media SA https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Frontiers in Earth Science volume 9 ISSN 2296-6463 journal-article 2021 crfrontiers https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.710036 2024-09-17T04:12:54Z As a step towards understanding the fundamental drivers of polar climate change, we evaluate contributions to polar warming and its seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) as compared with CMIP5. CMIP6 models broadly capture the observed pattern of surface- and winter-dominated Arctic warming that has outpaced both tropical and Antarctic warming in recent decades. For both CMIP5 and CMIP6, CO 2 quadrupling experiments reveal that the lapse-rate and surface albedo feedbacks contribute most to stronger warming in the Arctic than the tropics or Antarctic. The relative strength of the polar surface albedo feedback in comparison to the lapse-rate feedback is sensitive to the choice of radiative kernel, and the albedo feedback contributes most to intermodel spread in polar warming at both poles. By separately calculating moist and dry atmospheric heat transport, we show that increased poleward moisture transport is another important driver of Arctic amplification and the largest contributor to projected Antarctic warming. Seasonal ocean heat storage and winter-amplified temperature feedbacks contribute most to the winter peak in warming in the Arctic and a weaker winter peak in the Antarctic. In comparison with CMIP5, stronger polar warming in CMIP6 results from a larger surface albedo feedback at both poles, combined with less-negative cloud feedbacks in the Arctic and increased poleward moisture transport in the Antarctic. However, normalizing by the global-mean surface warming yields a similar degree of Arctic amplification and only slightly increased Antarctic amplification in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change Frontiers (Publisher) Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic Frontiers in Earth Science 9 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Frontiers (Publisher) |
op_collection_id |
crfrontiers |
language |
unknown |
description |
As a step towards understanding the fundamental drivers of polar climate change, we evaluate contributions to polar warming and its seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) as compared with CMIP5. CMIP6 models broadly capture the observed pattern of surface- and winter-dominated Arctic warming that has outpaced both tropical and Antarctic warming in recent decades. For both CMIP5 and CMIP6, CO 2 quadrupling experiments reveal that the lapse-rate and surface albedo feedbacks contribute most to stronger warming in the Arctic than the tropics or Antarctic. The relative strength of the polar surface albedo feedback in comparison to the lapse-rate feedback is sensitive to the choice of radiative kernel, and the albedo feedback contributes most to intermodel spread in polar warming at both poles. By separately calculating moist and dry atmospheric heat transport, we show that increased poleward moisture transport is another important driver of Arctic amplification and the largest contributor to projected Antarctic warming. Seasonal ocean heat storage and winter-amplified temperature feedbacks contribute most to the winter peak in warming in the Arctic and a weaker winter peak in the Antarctic. In comparison with CMIP5, stronger polar warming in CMIP6 results from a larger surface albedo feedback at both poles, combined with less-negative cloud feedbacks in the Arctic and increased poleward moisture transport in the Antarctic. However, normalizing by the global-mean surface warming yields a similar degree of Arctic amplification and only slightly increased Antarctic amplification in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hahn, L. C. Armour, K. C. Zelinka, M. D. Bitz, C. M. Donohoe, A. |
spellingShingle |
Hahn, L. C. Armour, K. C. Zelinka, M. D. Bitz, C. M. Donohoe, A. Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models |
author_facet |
Hahn, L. C. Armour, K. C. Zelinka, M. D. Bitz, C. M. Donohoe, A. |
author_sort |
Hahn, L. C. |
title |
Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models |
title_short |
Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models |
title_full |
Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models |
title_fullStr |
Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models |
title_sort |
contributions to polar amplification in cmip5 and cmip6 models |
publisher |
Frontiers Media SA |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.710036 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.710036/full |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
genre |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
Frontiers in Earth Science volume 9 ISSN 2296-6463 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.710036 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Earth Science |
container_volume |
9 |
_version_ |
1811644622547451904 |