Predictability of the low-frequency modes of the Arctic Ocean heat content variability: a perfect model approach
Abstract The problem of potential predictability of the temperature of the upper layer of the Arctic Ocean for the data of pre-industrial climate modelling run by the INM-CM5 Earth system model developed at the INM RAS is considered. The main attention is paid to the analysis of predictability of th...
Published in: | Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling |
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crdegruyter:10.1515/rnam-2022-0008 2023-05-15T14:47:55+02:00 Predictability of the low-frequency modes of the Arctic Ocean heat content variability: a perfect model approach Gritsun, Andrey S. 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/rnam-2022-0008 https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/rnam-2022-0008/xml https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/rnam-2022-0008/pdf en eng Walter de Gruyter GmbH Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling volume 37, issue 2, page 99-109 ISSN 0927-6467 1569-3988 Modeling and Simulation Numerical Analysis journal-article 2022 crdegruyter https://doi.org/10.1515/rnam-2022-0008 2022-05-11T14:46:24Z Abstract The problem of potential predictability of the temperature of the upper layer of the Arctic Ocean for the data of pre-industrial climate modelling run by the INM-CM5 Earth system model developed at the INM RAS is considered. The main attention is paid to the analysis of predictability of the phases of the dominant modes of low-frequency variability of the Arctic Ocean circulation. The initial estimate of its predictability is made by using the method of analogues and calculating the resonances of the invariant measure. Then this estimate is verified by direct ensemble calculations with the model. The results obtained indicate that the maximum predictability time interval reaches ten years for 15-year average values of heat content and corresponds to the states with maximum positive anomalies along the leading low-frequency variability modes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean De Gruyter (via Crossref) Arctic Arctic Ocean Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling 37 2 99 109 |
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De Gruyter (via Crossref) |
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crdegruyter |
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English |
topic |
Modeling and Simulation Numerical Analysis |
spellingShingle |
Modeling and Simulation Numerical Analysis Gritsun, Andrey S. Predictability of the low-frequency modes of the Arctic Ocean heat content variability: a perfect model approach |
topic_facet |
Modeling and Simulation Numerical Analysis |
description |
Abstract The problem of potential predictability of the temperature of the upper layer of the Arctic Ocean for the data of pre-industrial climate modelling run by the INM-CM5 Earth system model developed at the INM RAS is considered. The main attention is paid to the analysis of predictability of the phases of the dominant modes of low-frequency variability of the Arctic Ocean circulation. The initial estimate of its predictability is made by using the method of analogues and calculating the resonances of the invariant measure. Then this estimate is verified by direct ensemble calculations with the model. The results obtained indicate that the maximum predictability time interval reaches ten years for 15-year average values of heat content and corresponds to the states with maximum positive anomalies along the leading low-frequency variability modes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gritsun, Andrey S. |
author_facet |
Gritsun, Andrey S. |
author_sort |
Gritsun, Andrey S. |
title |
Predictability of the low-frequency modes of the Arctic Ocean heat content variability: a perfect model approach |
title_short |
Predictability of the low-frequency modes of the Arctic Ocean heat content variability: a perfect model approach |
title_full |
Predictability of the low-frequency modes of the Arctic Ocean heat content variability: a perfect model approach |
title_fullStr |
Predictability of the low-frequency modes of the Arctic Ocean heat content variability: a perfect model approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictability of the low-frequency modes of the Arctic Ocean heat content variability: a perfect model approach |
title_sort |
predictability of the low-frequency modes of the arctic ocean heat content variability: a perfect model approach |
publisher |
Walter de Gruyter GmbH |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/rnam-2022-0008 https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/rnam-2022-0008/xml https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/rnam-2022-0008/pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
op_source |
Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling volume 37, issue 2, page 99-109 ISSN 0927-6467 1569-3988 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1515/rnam-2022-0008 |
container_title |
Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling |
container_volume |
37 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
99 |
op_container_end_page |
109 |
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1766319035360739328 |