Impacts of emissions uncertainty on Antarctic instability and sea-level rise
Uncertainty in future carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and the geophysical response to emissions, drives variability in future sea-level rise (SLR). However, the relative contribution of emissions and geophysical dynamics (e.g. Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) tipping points) to future sea-level projections...
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2023
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crcenteros:10.31219/osf.io/j47ts 2024-06-23T07:47:04+00:00 Impacts of emissions uncertainty on Antarctic instability and sea-level rise Darnell, Chloe Rennels, Lisa Errickson, Frank Wong, Tony Srikrishnan, Vivek 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/j47ts unknown Center for Open Science https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode posted-content 2023 crcenteros https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/j47ts 2024-05-24T13:06:04Z Uncertainty in future carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and the geophysical response to emissions, drives variability in future sea-level rise (SLR). However, the relative contribution of emissions and geophysical dynamics (e.g. Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) tipping points) to future sea-level projections is poorly understood. Here, we disentangle their relative importance by propagating several ensembles of CO2 emissions trajectories, representing relevant deep uncertainties, through a calibrated carbon cycle-climate-sea-level model chain. The CO2 emissions trajectory, particularly the timing of when emissions are reduced, becomes the primary driver of sea-level variability only after 2075. The most extreme global mean SLR (exceeding 4m by 2200) is projected to occur regardless of optimism about limiting CO2 emissions if accelerated AIS melting occurs. Further, delaying decarbonization reduces the “safe operating space” associated with the geophysical uncertainties. Our results highlight the potential that similar adaptation requirements may be needed regardless of optimism about future levels of CO2 mitigation. Other/Unknown Material Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet COS Center for Open Science Antarctic |
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Open Polar |
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COS Center for Open Science |
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crcenteros |
language |
unknown |
description |
Uncertainty in future carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and the geophysical response to emissions, drives variability in future sea-level rise (SLR). However, the relative contribution of emissions and geophysical dynamics (e.g. Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) tipping points) to future sea-level projections is poorly understood. Here, we disentangle their relative importance by propagating several ensembles of CO2 emissions trajectories, representing relevant deep uncertainties, through a calibrated carbon cycle-climate-sea-level model chain. The CO2 emissions trajectory, particularly the timing of when emissions are reduced, becomes the primary driver of sea-level variability only after 2075. The most extreme global mean SLR (exceeding 4m by 2200) is projected to occur regardless of optimism about limiting CO2 emissions if accelerated AIS melting occurs. Further, delaying decarbonization reduces the “safe operating space” associated with the geophysical uncertainties. Our results highlight the potential that similar adaptation requirements may be needed regardless of optimism about future levels of CO2 mitigation. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Darnell, Chloe Rennels, Lisa Errickson, Frank Wong, Tony Srikrishnan, Vivek |
spellingShingle |
Darnell, Chloe Rennels, Lisa Errickson, Frank Wong, Tony Srikrishnan, Vivek Impacts of emissions uncertainty on Antarctic instability and sea-level rise |
author_facet |
Darnell, Chloe Rennels, Lisa Errickson, Frank Wong, Tony Srikrishnan, Vivek |
author_sort |
Darnell, Chloe |
title |
Impacts of emissions uncertainty on Antarctic instability and sea-level rise |
title_short |
Impacts of emissions uncertainty on Antarctic instability and sea-level rise |
title_full |
Impacts of emissions uncertainty on Antarctic instability and sea-level rise |
title_fullStr |
Impacts of emissions uncertainty on Antarctic instability and sea-level rise |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impacts of emissions uncertainty on Antarctic instability and sea-level rise |
title_sort |
impacts of emissions uncertainty on antarctic instability and sea-level rise |
publisher |
Center for Open Science |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/j47ts |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/j47ts |
_version_ |
1802650655657033728 |