A probabilistic approach to analysis of ice loads for the Confederation Bridge
The main focus of the paper is the framework for analysing ice loads on the Confederation Bridge across the Northumberland Strait, using probabilistic methods. Safety targets were given as a beta factor of 4.0 for a 100-year lifetime, amounting to a probability of failure of about 3 × 10 -7 per year...
Published in: | Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering |
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crcansciencepubl:10.1139/l01-015 2023-12-17T10:27:56+01:00 A probabilistic approach to analysis of ice loads for the Confederation Bridge Brown, T G Jordaan, I J Croasdale, K R 2001 http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/l01-015 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/l01-015 en eng Canadian Science Publishing http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/page/about/CorporateTextAndDataMining Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering volume 28, issue 4, page 562-573 ISSN 0315-1468 1208-6029 General Environmental Science Civil and Structural Engineering journal-article 2001 crcansciencepubl https://doi.org/10.1139/l01-015 2023-11-19T13:39:07Z The main focus of the paper is the framework for analysing ice loads on the Confederation Bridge across the Northumberland Strait, using probabilistic methods. Safety targets were given as a beta factor of 4.0 for a 100-year lifetime, amounting to a probability of failure of about 3 × 10 -7 per year. The ice regime comprises rafted and ridged ice, and peak loads are expected during March and April of each year. A simulation method was developed, in which loads are calculated corresponding to individual interactions associated with ridges in the ice floes that traverse the strait. The floes are driven by environmental driving forces, and the highest loads occur when these exceed the ridge failure loads. The load results from failure of the consolidated layer and rubble keel. Methods for the analysis of this are described. The determination of extreme loads depends on the number of interactions per year. Difficulties in modelling are described, together with techniques for analysis, such as updating of probability distributions given an interaction. Many of these techniques were derived from work related to the Beaufort Sea oil exploration. The results reflect a best-estimate approach to those parameters for which information was sketchy, or unavailable. They are therefore conditional on those estimates, but as the results are largely insensitive to these, the potential for error is minimal. There are a number of parameters (e.g., friction coefficient) that do have a significant effect and for which all those involved in the effort would have wished better definition. This sensitivity is reflected in the two sets of results presented in the paper.Key words: ice, forces, probabilistic, safety, bridges, modelling. Article in Journal/Newspaper Beaufort Sea Canadian Science Publishing (via Crossref) Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 28 4 562 573 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Canadian Science Publishing (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
crcansciencepubl |
language |
English |
topic |
General Environmental Science Civil and Structural Engineering |
spellingShingle |
General Environmental Science Civil and Structural Engineering Brown, T G Jordaan, I J Croasdale, K R A probabilistic approach to analysis of ice loads for the Confederation Bridge |
topic_facet |
General Environmental Science Civil and Structural Engineering |
description |
The main focus of the paper is the framework for analysing ice loads on the Confederation Bridge across the Northumberland Strait, using probabilistic methods. Safety targets were given as a beta factor of 4.0 for a 100-year lifetime, amounting to a probability of failure of about 3 × 10 -7 per year. The ice regime comprises rafted and ridged ice, and peak loads are expected during March and April of each year. A simulation method was developed, in which loads are calculated corresponding to individual interactions associated with ridges in the ice floes that traverse the strait. The floes are driven by environmental driving forces, and the highest loads occur when these exceed the ridge failure loads. The load results from failure of the consolidated layer and rubble keel. Methods for the analysis of this are described. The determination of extreme loads depends on the number of interactions per year. Difficulties in modelling are described, together with techniques for analysis, such as updating of probability distributions given an interaction. Many of these techniques were derived from work related to the Beaufort Sea oil exploration. The results reflect a best-estimate approach to those parameters for which information was sketchy, or unavailable. They are therefore conditional on those estimates, but as the results are largely insensitive to these, the potential for error is minimal. There are a number of parameters (e.g., friction coefficient) that do have a significant effect and for which all those involved in the effort would have wished better definition. This sensitivity is reflected in the two sets of results presented in the paper.Key words: ice, forces, probabilistic, safety, bridges, modelling. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Brown, T G Jordaan, I J Croasdale, K R |
author_facet |
Brown, T G Jordaan, I J Croasdale, K R |
author_sort |
Brown, T G |
title |
A probabilistic approach to analysis of ice loads for the Confederation Bridge |
title_short |
A probabilistic approach to analysis of ice loads for the Confederation Bridge |
title_full |
A probabilistic approach to analysis of ice loads for the Confederation Bridge |
title_fullStr |
A probabilistic approach to analysis of ice loads for the Confederation Bridge |
title_full_unstemmed |
A probabilistic approach to analysis of ice loads for the Confederation Bridge |
title_sort |
probabilistic approach to analysis of ice loads for the confederation bridge |
publisher |
Canadian Science Publishing |
publishDate |
2001 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/l01-015 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/l01-015 |
genre |
Beaufort Sea |
genre_facet |
Beaufort Sea |
op_source |
Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering volume 28, issue 4, page 562-573 ISSN 0315-1468 1208-6029 |
op_rights |
http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/page/about/CorporateTextAndDataMining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1139/l01-015 |
container_title |
Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering |
container_volume |
28 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
562 |
op_container_end_page |
573 |
_version_ |
1785579912088780800 |