Detecting Synchrony of Recruitment using Short, Autocorrelated Time Series
Synchrony of recruitment to distinct fish stocks is difficult to detect because the available time series are generally short and autocorrelated. The recent introduction of more sophisticated statistical techniques has not been particularly helpful; several contradictory interpretations of similar d...
Published in: | Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences |
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Canadian Science Publishing
1989
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/f89-230 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/f89-230 |
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crcansciencepubl:10.1139/f89-230 2023-12-17T10:30:23+01:00 Detecting Synchrony of Recruitment using Short, Autocorrelated Time Series Thompson, Keith R. Page, Fred H. 1989 http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/f89-230 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/f89-230 en eng Canadian Science Publishing http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/page/about/CorporateTextAndDataMining Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences volume 46, issue 10, page 1831-1838 ISSN 0706-652X 1205-7533 Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics journal-article 1989 crcansciencepubl https://doi.org/10.1139/f89-230 2023-11-19T13:38:27Z Synchrony of recruitment to distinct fish stocks is difficult to detect because the available time series are generally short and autocorrelated. The recent introduction of more sophisticated statistical techniques has not been particularly helpful; several contradictory interpretations of similar data sets are discussed in the paper. To help resolve the continuing controversy surrounding the question of synchrony, we review three statistical tests of independence and determine their power using simulated data. The tests are then applied to recruitment data for six cod (Gadus morhua) and three haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) stocks of the northwest Atlantic. Prior to analysis each series was first-differenced to reduce autocorrelation and hence increase statistical reliability in the results. The cod stocks are shown to fluctuate independently of the haddock stocks. There is, however, evidence of synchrony for stocks of the same species; the more widely separated cod stocks have a lower mean correlation [Formula: see text] than the haddock [Formula: see text] but both correlations are significant at the 1% level. The within-species synchrony is not due to fluctuations in our index of egg production and it appears that environmental forcing is probably important. Article in Journal/Newspaper Gadus morhua Northwest Atlantic Canadian Science Publishing (via Crossref) Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 46 10 1831 1838 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Canadian Science Publishing (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
crcansciencepubl |
language |
English |
topic |
Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics |
spellingShingle |
Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Thompson, Keith R. Page, Fred H. Detecting Synchrony of Recruitment using Short, Autocorrelated Time Series |
topic_facet |
Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics |
description |
Synchrony of recruitment to distinct fish stocks is difficult to detect because the available time series are generally short and autocorrelated. The recent introduction of more sophisticated statistical techniques has not been particularly helpful; several contradictory interpretations of similar data sets are discussed in the paper. To help resolve the continuing controversy surrounding the question of synchrony, we review three statistical tests of independence and determine their power using simulated data. The tests are then applied to recruitment data for six cod (Gadus morhua) and three haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) stocks of the northwest Atlantic. Prior to analysis each series was first-differenced to reduce autocorrelation and hence increase statistical reliability in the results. The cod stocks are shown to fluctuate independently of the haddock stocks. There is, however, evidence of synchrony for stocks of the same species; the more widely separated cod stocks have a lower mean correlation [Formula: see text] than the haddock [Formula: see text] but both correlations are significant at the 1% level. The within-species synchrony is not due to fluctuations in our index of egg production and it appears that environmental forcing is probably important. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Thompson, Keith R. Page, Fred H. |
author_facet |
Thompson, Keith R. Page, Fred H. |
author_sort |
Thompson, Keith R. |
title |
Detecting Synchrony of Recruitment using Short, Autocorrelated Time Series |
title_short |
Detecting Synchrony of Recruitment using Short, Autocorrelated Time Series |
title_full |
Detecting Synchrony of Recruitment using Short, Autocorrelated Time Series |
title_fullStr |
Detecting Synchrony of Recruitment using Short, Autocorrelated Time Series |
title_full_unstemmed |
Detecting Synchrony of Recruitment using Short, Autocorrelated Time Series |
title_sort |
detecting synchrony of recruitment using short, autocorrelated time series |
publisher |
Canadian Science Publishing |
publishDate |
1989 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/f89-230 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/f89-230 |
genre |
Gadus morhua Northwest Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Gadus morhua Northwest Atlantic |
op_source |
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences volume 46, issue 10, page 1831-1838 ISSN 0706-652X 1205-7533 |
op_rights |
http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/page/about/CorporateTextAndDataMining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1139/f89-230 |
container_title |
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences |
container_volume |
46 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
1831 |
op_container_end_page |
1838 |
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1785583347351683072 |