Nonstationary effects of ocean temperature on Pacific salmon productivity
We tested the hypothesis that ocean temperature effects on productivity for northeast Pacific pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha), sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka), and chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) changed after 1988–1989, coincident with a decline in Aleutian Low variance. Nonstationary temperature effect...
Published in: | Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences |
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crcansciencepubl:10.1139/cjfas-2019-0120 2024-09-15T17:36:28+00:00 Nonstationary effects of ocean temperature on Pacific salmon productivity Litzow, Michael A. Ciannelli, Lorenzo Cunningham, Curry J. Johnson, Bethany Puerta, Patricia 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2019-0120 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/full-xml/10.1139/cjfas-2019-0120 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/cjfas-2019-0120 en eng Canadian Science Publishing http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/page/about/CorporateTextAndDataMining Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences volume 76, issue 11, page 1923-1928 ISSN 0706-652X 1205-7533 journal-article 2019 crcansciencepubl https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2019-0120 2024-08-29T04:08:49Z We tested the hypothesis that ocean temperature effects on productivity for northeast Pacific pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha), sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka), and chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) changed after 1988–1989, coincident with a decline in Aleutian Low variance. Nonstationary temperature effects were tested with three different analytical methods (correlation, mixed-effects models, and variable coefficient generalized additive models) applied to spawner–recruit time series from 86 wild runs between Puget Sound and the northern Bering Sea. All three methods supported the hypothesis, with evidence for change in temperature effects that was strongest in the Gulf of Alaska, British Columbia, and Washington and weakest in the Bering Sea. Productivity for all three species showed generally positive responses to ocean temperature in Alaska before 1988–1989, but generally neutral responses after 1988–1989. British Columbia and Washington salmon showed either neutral responses to temperature (pink), negative responses that weakened after 1988–1989 (sockeye), or a switch from neutral to negative responses (chum). We conclude that the inverse response of Alaskan and more southern salmon populations to temperature variability is a time-dependent phenomenon. Article in Journal/Newspaper aleutian low Bering Sea Oncorhynchus gorbuscha Alaska Canadian Science Publishing Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 76 11 1923 1928 |
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Open Polar |
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Canadian Science Publishing |
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crcansciencepubl |
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English |
description |
We tested the hypothesis that ocean temperature effects on productivity for northeast Pacific pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha), sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka), and chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) changed after 1988–1989, coincident with a decline in Aleutian Low variance. Nonstationary temperature effects were tested with three different analytical methods (correlation, mixed-effects models, and variable coefficient generalized additive models) applied to spawner–recruit time series from 86 wild runs between Puget Sound and the northern Bering Sea. All three methods supported the hypothesis, with evidence for change in temperature effects that was strongest in the Gulf of Alaska, British Columbia, and Washington and weakest in the Bering Sea. Productivity for all three species showed generally positive responses to ocean temperature in Alaska before 1988–1989, but generally neutral responses after 1988–1989. British Columbia and Washington salmon showed either neutral responses to temperature (pink), negative responses that weakened after 1988–1989 (sockeye), or a switch from neutral to negative responses (chum). We conclude that the inverse response of Alaskan and more southern salmon populations to temperature variability is a time-dependent phenomenon. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Litzow, Michael A. Ciannelli, Lorenzo Cunningham, Curry J. Johnson, Bethany Puerta, Patricia |
spellingShingle |
Litzow, Michael A. Ciannelli, Lorenzo Cunningham, Curry J. Johnson, Bethany Puerta, Patricia Nonstationary effects of ocean temperature on Pacific salmon productivity |
author_facet |
Litzow, Michael A. Ciannelli, Lorenzo Cunningham, Curry J. Johnson, Bethany Puerta, Patricia |
author_sort |
Litzow, Michael A. |
title |
Nonstationary effects of ocean temperature on Pacific salmon productivity |
title_short |
Nonstationary effects of ocean temperature on Pacific salmon productivity |
title_full |
Nonstationary effects of ocean temperature on Pacific salmon productivity |
title_fullStr |
Nonstationary effects of ocean temperature on Pacific salmon productivity |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonstationary effects of ocean temperature on Pacific salmon productivity |
title_sort |
nonstationary effects of ocean temperature on pacific salmon productivity |
publisher |
Canadian Science Publishing |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2019-0120 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/full-xml/10.1139/cjfas-2019-0120 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/cjfas-2019-0120 |
genre |
aleutian low Bering Sea Oncorhynchus gorbuscha Alaska |
genre_facet |
aleutian low Bering Sea Oncorhynchus gorbuscha Alaska |
op_source |
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences volume 76, issue 11, page 1923-1928 ISSN 0706-652X 1205-7533 |
op_rights |
http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/page/about/CorporateTextAndDataMining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2019-0120 |
container_title |
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences |
container_volume |
76 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
1923 |
op_container_end_page |
1928 |
_version_ |
1810489801875390464 |