A performance evaluation of surplus production models with time-varying intrinsic growth in dynamic ecosystems
We conducted a simulation study to evaluate performance of surplus production models (SPMs) with a time-varying intrinsic growth rate (SPMTVr) for stocks with predation-driven changes in productivity. Data sets were simulated using an age-structured, linked, predator–prey model of Atlantic menhaden...
Published in: | Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences |
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crcansciencepubl:10.1139/cjfas-2018-0292 2024-09-15T18:26:22+00:00 A performance evaluation of surplus production models with time-varying intrinsic growth in dynamic ecosystems Nesslage, Geneviève M. Wilberg, Michael J. 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0292 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/full-xml/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0292 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0292 en eng Canadian Science Publishing http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/page/about/CorporateTextAndDataMining Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences volume 76, issue 12, page 2245-2255 ISSN 0706-652X 1205-7533 journal-article 2019 crcansciencepubl https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0292 2024-08-01T04:10:02Z We conducted a simulation study to evaluate performance of surplus production models (SPMs) with a time-varying intrinsic growth rate (SPMTVr) for stocks with predation-driven changes in productivity. Data sets were simulated using an age-structured, linked, predator–prey model of Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus), a forage fish native to the Northwest Atlantic, and Atlantic striped bass (Morone saxatilis), its primary predator, with differing time series of fishing mortality on both predator and prey. Simulations generated test data sets for Atlantic menhaden SPMs that included either a static or time-varying intrinsic growth rate parameter. The SPMTVr largely produced more accurate, less variable estimates of exploitation rate and biomass than models with static intrinsic growth. We also applied SPMTVr to empirical Atlantic menhaden catch and survey data for 1964–2016. The SPMTVr fit the survey data well, estimated an intrinsic growth rate time series that mirrored long-term juvenile survey trends, and produced biomass and exploitation rate trends that mirrored a statistical catch-at-age model. The SPMTVr estimated dynamic, maximum sustainable yield (MSY)-based reference points that reflected changing stock productivity. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northwest Atlantic Canadian Science Publishing Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 76 12 2245 2255 |
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Open Polar |
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Canadian Science Publishing |
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crcansciencepubl |
language |
English |
description |
We conducted a simulation study to evaluate performance of surplus production models (SPMs) with a time-varying intrinsic growth rate (SPMTVr) for stocks with predation-driven changes in productivity. Data sets were simulated using an age-structured, linked, predator–prey model of Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus), a forage fish native to the Northwest Atlantic, and Atlantic striped bass (Morone saxatilis), its primary predator, with differing time series of fishing mortality on both predator and prey. Simulations generated test data sets for Atlantic menhaden SPMs that included either a static or time-varying intrinsic growth rate parameter. The SPMTVr largely produced more accurate, less variable estimates of exploitation rate and biomass than models with static intrinsic growth. We also applied SPMTVr to empirical Atlantic menhaden catch and survey data for 1964–2016. The SPMTVr fit the survey data well, estimated an intrinsic growth rate time series that mirrored long-term juvenile survey trends, and produced biomass and exploitation rate trends that mirrored a statistical catch-at-age model. The SPMTVr estimated dynamic, maximum sustainable yield (MSY)-based reference points that reflected changing stock productivity. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nesslage, Geneviève M. Wilberg, Michael J. |
spellingShingle |
Nesslage, Geneviève M. Wilberg, Michael J. A performance evaluation of surplus production models with time-varying intrinsic growth in dynamic ecosystems |
author_facet |
Nesslage, Geneviève M. Wilberg, Michael J. |
author_sort |
Nesslage, Geneviève M. |
title |
A performance evaluation of surplus production models with time-varying intrinsic growth in dynamic ecosystems |
title_short |
A performance evaluation of surplus production models with time-varying intrinsic growth in dynamic ecosystems |
title_full |
A performance evaluation of surplus production models with time-varying intrinsic growth in dynamic ecosystems |
title_fullStr |
A performance evaluation of surplus production models with time-varying intrinsic growth in dynamic ecosystems |
title_full_unstemmed |
A performance evaluation of surplus production models with time-varying intrinsic growth in dynamic ecosystems |
title_sort |
performance evaluation of surplus production models with time-varying intrinsic growth in dynamic ecosystems |
publisher |
Canadian Science Publishing |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0292 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/full-xml/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0292 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0292 |
genre |
Northwest Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northwest Atlantic |
op_source |
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences volume 76, issue 12, page 2245-2255 ISSN 0706-652X 1205-7533 |
op_rights |
http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/page/about/CorporateTextAndDataMining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0292 |
container_title |
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences |
container_volume |
76 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
2245 |
op_container_end_page |
2255 |
_version_ |
1810466843431796736 |