Understanding historical summer flounder ( Paralichthys dentatus) abundance patterns through the incorporation of oceanography-dependent vital rates in Bayesian hierarchical models
Climate can impact fish population dynamics through changes in productivity and shifts in distribution, and both responses have been observed for many fish species. However, few studies have incorporated climate into population dynamics or stock assessment models. This study aimed to uncover how pas...
Published in: | Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Canadian Science Publishing
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0092 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/full-xml/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0092 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0092 |
id |
crcansciencepubl:10.1139/cjfas-2018-0092 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crcansciencepubl:10.1139/cjfas-2018-0092 2024-06-23T07:55:40+00:00 Understanding historical summer flounder ( Paralichthys dentatus) abundance patterns through the incorporation of oceanography-dependent vital rates in Bayesian hierarchical models O’Leary, Cecilia A. Miller, Timothy J. Thorson, James T. Nye, Janet A. 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0092 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/full-xml/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0092 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0092 en eng Canadian Science Publishing http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/page/about/CorporateTextAndDataMining Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences volume 76, issue 8, page 1275-1294 ISSN 0706-652X 1205-7533 journal-article 2019 crcansciencepubl https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0092 2024-06-06T04:11:19Z Climate can impact fish population dynamics through changes in productivity and shifts in distribution, and both responses have been observed for many fish species. However, few studies have incorporated climate into population dynamics or stock assessment models. This study aimed to uncover how past variations in population vital rates and fishing pressure account for observed abundance variation in summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus). The influences of the Gulf Stream Index, an index of climate variability in the Northwest Atlantic, on abundance were explored through natural mortality and stock–recruitment relationships in age-structured hierarchical Bayesian models. Posterior predictive loss and deviance information criterion indicated that out of tested models, the best estimates of summer flounder abundances resulted from the climate-dependent natural mortality model that included log-quadratic responses to the Gulf Stream Index. This climate-linked population model demonstrates the role of climate responses in observed abundance patterns and emphasizes the complexities of environmental effects on populations beyond simple correlations. This approach highlights the importance of modeling the combined effect of fishing and climate simultaneously to understand population dynamics. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northwest Atlantic Canadian Science Publishing Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 76 8 1275 1294 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Canadian Science Publishing |
op_collection_id |
crcansciencepubl |
language |
English |
description |
Climate can impact fish population dynamics through changes in productivity and shifts in distribution, and both responses have been observed for many fish species. However, few studies have incorporated climate into population dynamics or stock assessment models. This study aimed to uncover how past variations in population vital rates and fishing pressure account for observed abundance variation in summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus). The influences of the Gulf Stream Index, an index of climate variability in the Northwest Atlantic, on abundance were explored through natural mortality and stock–recruitment relationships in age-structured hierarchical Bayesian models. Posterior predictive loss and deviance information criterion indicated that out of tested models, the best estimates of summer flounder abundances resulted from the climate-dependent natural mortality model that included log-quadratic responses to the Gulf Stream Index. This climate-linked population model demonstrates the role of climate responses in observed abundance patterns and emphasizes the complexities of environmental effects on populations beyond simple correlations. This approach highlights the importance of modeling the combined effect of fishing and climate simultaneously to understand population dynamics. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
O’Leary, Cecilia A. Miller, Timothy J. Thorson, James T. Nye, Janet A. |
spellingShingle |
O’Leary, Cecilia A. Miller, Timothy J. Thorson, James T. Nye, Janet A. Understanding historical summer flounder ( Paralichthys dentatus) abundance patterns through the incorporation of oceanography-dependent vital rates in Bayesian hierarchical models |
author_facet |
O’Leary, Cecilia A. Miller, Timothy J. Thorson, James T. Nye, Janet A. |
author_sort |
O’Leary, Cecilia A. |
title |
Understanding historical summer flounder ( Paralichthys dentatus) abundance patterns through the incorporation of oceanography-dependent vital rates in Bayesian hierarchical models |
title_short |
Understanding historical summer flounder ( Paralichthys dentatus) abundance patterns through the incorporation of oceanography-dependent vital rates in Bayesian hierarchical models |
title_full |
Understanding historical summer flounder ( Paralichthys dentatus) abundance patterns through the incorporation of oceanography-dependent vital rates in Bayesian hierarchical models |
title_fullStr |
Understanding historical summer flounder ( Paralichthys dentatus) abundance patterns through the incorporation of oceanography-dependent vital rates in Bayesian hierarchical models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Understanding historical summer flounder ( Paralichthys dentatus) abundance patterns through the incorporation of oceanography-dependent vital rates in Bayesian hierarchical models |
title_sort |
understanding historical summer flounder ( paralichthys dentatus) abundance patterns through the incorporation of oceanography-dependent vital rates in bayesian hierarchical models |
publisher |
Canadian Science Publishing |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0092 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/full-xml/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0092 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0092 |
genre |
Northwest Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northwest Atlantic |
op_source |
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences volume 76, issue 8, page 1275-1294 ISSN 0706-652X 1205-7533 |
op_rights |
http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/page/about/CorporateTextAndDataMining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0092 |
container_title |
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences |
container_volume |
76 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
1275 |
op_container_end_page |
1294 |
_version_ |
1802648340568997888 |