Temporal and environmental variation in growth and maturity and effects on management reference points of Georges Bank Atlantic cod
Temporal variation in demographic rates has been observed in various fish populations and environmental influences are likely to be a key factor. Here we show how it can be important to combine state-space models for environmental covariates and demographic rates when evaluating effects of the forme...
Published in: | Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences |
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crcansciencepubl:10.1139/cjfas-2017-0124 2024-06-23T07:51:03+00:00 Temporal and environmental variation in growth and maturity and effects on management reference points of Georges Bank Atlantic cod Miller, Timothy J. O’Brien, Loretta Fratantoni, Paula S. 2018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2017-0124 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/full-xml/10.1139/cjfas-2017-0124 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/cjfas-2017-0124 en eng Canadian Science Publishing http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/page/about/CorporateTextAndDataMining Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences volume 75, issue 12, page 2159-2171 ISSN 0706-652X 1205-7533 journal-article 2018 crcansciencepubl https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2017-0124 2024-06-06T04:11:14Z Temporal variation in demographic rates has been observed in various fish populations and environmental influences are likely to be a key factor. Here we show how it can be important to combine state-space models for environmental covariates and demographic rates when evaluating effects of the former on the latter. In an application to Georges Bank Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), we show how estimates of the environmental covariate can be aliased with unknown temporal variation in growth rates and that stronger and opposite effects of the environment can incorrectly be found when the autocorrelation in the growth rate is not separately modeled. The perception of effects on maturity also depends on whether an appropriate distribution is considered for the maturity observations. Bottom temperature did not improve prediction of maturity parameters, but temporal variation driven by other sources did. Both bottom temperature and temporal variation improved performance of growth models. Finally, we found growth and maturity estimation to be important contributors to uncertainty of spawning biomass and biological reference points when incorporated into a state-space assessment model. Article in Journal/Newspaper atlantic cod Gadus morhua Canadian Science Publishing Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 75 12 2159 2171 |
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Open Polar |
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Canadian Science Publishing |
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crcansciencepubl |
language |
English |
description |
Temporal variation in demographic rates has been observed in various fish populations and environmental influences are likely to be a key factor. Here we show how it can be important to combine state-space models for environmental covariates and demographic rates when evaluating effects of the former on the latter. In an application to Georges Bank Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), we show how estimates of the environmental covariate can be aliased with unknown temporal variation in growth rates and that stronger and opposite effects of the environment can incorrectly be found when the autocorrelation in the growth rate is not separately modeled. The perception of effects on maturity also depends on whether an appropriate distribution is considered for the maturity observations. Bottom temperature did not improve prediction of maturity parameters, but temporal variation driven by other sources did. Both bottom temperature and temporal variation improved performance of growth models. Finally, we found growth and maturity estimation to be important contributors to uncertainty of spawning biomass and biological reference points when incorporated into a state-space assessment model. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Miller, Timothy J. O’Brien, Loretta Fratantoni, Paula S. |
spellingShingle |
Miller, Timothy J. O’Brien, Loretta Fratantoni, Paula S. Temporal and environmental variation in growth and maturity and effects on management reference points of Georges Bank Atlantic cod |
author_facet |
Miller, Timothy J. O’Brien, Loretta Fratantoni, Paula S. |
author_sort |
Miller, Timothy J. |
title |
Temporal and environmental variation in growth and maturity and effects on management reference points of Georges Bank Atlantic cod |
title_short |
Temporal and environmental variation in growth and maturity and effects on management reference points of Georges Bank Atlantic cod |
title_full |
Temporal and environmental variation in growth and maturity and effects on management reference points of Georges Bank Atlantic cod |
title_fullStr |
Temporal and environmental variation in growth and maturity and effects on management reference points of Georges Bank Atlantic cod |
title_full_unstemmed |
Temporal and environmental variation in growth and maturity and effects on management reference points of Georges Bank Atlantic cod |
title_sort |
temporal and environmental variation in growth and maturity and effects on management reference points of georges bank atlantic cod |
publisher |
Canadian Science Publishing |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2017-0124 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/full-xml/10.1139/cjfas-2017-0124 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/cjfas-2017-0124 |
genre |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
op_source |
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences volume 75, issue 12, page 2159-2171 ISSN 0706-652X 1205-7533 |
op_rights |
http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/page/about/CorporateTextAndDataMining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2017-0124 |
container_title |
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences |
container_volume |
75 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
2159 |
op_container_end_page |
2171 |
_version_ |
1802642043367849984 |