Detecting regime shifts in fish stock dynamics
Environmental factors such as water temperature, salinity, and the abundance of zooplankton can have major effects on certain fish stocks’ ability to produce juveniles and, thus, stock renewal ability. This variability in stock productivity manifests itself as different productivity regimes. Here, w...
Published in: | Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences |
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crcansciencepubl:10.1139/cjfas-2014-0406 2023-12-17T10:27:03+01:00 Detecting regime shifts in fish stock dynamics Perälä, Tommi Kuparinen, Anna 2015 http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2014-0406 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/full-xml/10.1139/cjfas-2014-0406 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/cjfas-2014-0406 en eng Canadian Science Publishing http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/page/about/CorporateTextAndDataMining Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences volume 72, issue 11, page 1619-1628 ISSN 0706-652X 1205-7533 Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics journal-article 2015 crcansciencepubl https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2014-0406 2023-11-19T13:39:26Z Environmental factors such as water temperature, salinity, and the abundance of zooplankton can have major effects on certain fish stocks’ ability to produce juveniles and, thus, stock renewal ability. This variability in stock productivity manifests itself as different productivity regimes. Here, we detect productivity regime shifts by analyzing recruit-per-spawner time series with Bayesian online change point detection algorithm. The algorithm infers the time since the last regime shift (change in mean or variance or both) as well as the parameters of the data-generating process for the current regime sequentially. We demonstrate the algorithm’s performance using simulated recruitment data from an individual-based model and further apply the algorithm to stock assessment estimates for four Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks obtained from RAM legacy database. Our analysis shows that the algorithm performs well when the variability between the regimes is high enough compared with the variability within the regimes. The algorithm found several productivity regimes for all four cod stocks, and the findings suggest that the stocks are currently in low productivity regimes, which have started during the 1990s and 2000s. Article in Journal/Newspaper atlantic cod Gadus morhua Canadian Science Publishing (via Crossref) Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 72 11 1619 1628 |
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Open Polar |
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Canadian Science Publishing (via Crossref) |
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crcansciencepubl |
language |
English |
topic |
Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics |
spellingShingle |
Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Perälä, Tommi Kuparinen, Anna Detecting regime shifts in fish stock dynamics |
topic_facet |
Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics |
description |
Environmental factors such as water temperature, salinity, and the abundance of zooplankton can have major effects on certain fish stocks’ ability to produce juveniles and, thus, stock renewal ability. This variability in stock productivity manifests itself as different productivity regimes. Here, we detect productivity regime shifts by analyzing recruit-per-spawner time series with Bayesian online change point detection algorithm. The algorithm infers the time since the last regime shift (change in mean or variance or both) as well as the parameters of the data-generating process for the current regime sequentially. We demonstrate the algorithm’s performance using simulated recruitment data from an individual-based model and further apply the algorithm to stock assessment estimates for four Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks obtained from RAM legacy database. Our analysis shows that the algorithm performs well when the variability between the regimes is high enough compared with the variability within the regimes. The algorithm found several productivity regimes for all four cod stocks, and the findings suggest that the stocks are currently in low productivity regimes, which have started during the 1990s and 2000s. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Perälä, Tommi Kuparinen, Anna |
author_facet |
Perälä, Tommi Kuparinen, Anna |
author_sort |
Perälä, Tommi |
title |
Detecting regime shifts in fish stock dynamics |
title_short |
Detecting regime shifts in fish stock dynamics |
title_full |
Detecting regime shifts in fish stock dynamics |
title_fullStr |
Detecting regime shifts in fish stock dynamics |
title_full_unstemmed |
Detecting regime shifts in fish stock dynamics |
title_sort |
detecting regime shifts in fish stock dynamics |
publisher |
Canadian Science Publishing |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2014-0406 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/full-xml/10.1139/cjfas-2014-0406 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/cjfas-2014-0406 |
genre |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
op_source |
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences volume 72, issue 11, page 1619-1628 ISSN 0706-652X 1205-7533 |
op_rights |
http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/page/about/CorporateTextAndDataMining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2014-0406 |
container_title |
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences |
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72 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
1619 |
op_container_end_page |
1628 |
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1785578834536431616 |