Climatic determinants of white spruce cone crops in the boreal forest of southwestern Yukon
White spruce ( Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) cone crops were measured from 1986 to 2011 in the Kluane region of southwestern Yukon to test the hypothesis that the size of cone crops could be predicted from spring and summer temperature and rainfall of years t, t – 1, and t – 2. We counted cones in the...
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Canadian Science Publishing
2012
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crcansciencepubl:10.1139/b11-088 2024-09-15T18:41:30+00:00 Climatic determinants of white spruce cone crops in the boreal forest of southwestern Yukon Krebs, C.J. LaMontagne, J.M. Kenney, A.J. Boutin, S. 2012 http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/b11-088 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/full-xml/10.1139/b11-088 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/b11-088 en eng Canadian Science Publishing http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/page/about/CorporateTextAndDataMining Botany volume 90, issue 2, page 113-119 ISSN 1916-2790 1916-2804 journal-article 2012 crcansciencepubl https://doi.org/10.1139/b11-088 2024-08-22T04:08:44Z White spruce ( Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) cone crops were measured from 1986 to 2011 in the Kluane region of southwestern Yukon to test the hypothesis that the size of cone crops could be predicted from spring and summer temperature and rainfall of years t, t – 1, and t – 2. We counted cones in the top 3 m of an average of 700 white spruce trees each year spread over 3–14 sites along 210 km of the Alaska Highway and the Haines Highway. We tested the conventional explanation for white spruce cone crops that implicates summer temperatures and rainfall in years t and t – 1 and rejected it, since it explained very little of the variation in our 26 years of data. We used exploratory data analysis with robust multiple regressions coupled with Akaike’s information criterion corrected (AIC c ) analysis to determine the best statistical model to predict the size of cone crops. We could statistically explain 54% of the variation in cone crops from July and August temperatures of years t – 1 and t – 2 and May precipitation of year t – 2. There was no indication of a periodicity in cone crops, and years of large cone crops were synchronous over the Kluane region with few exceptions. This is the first quantitative model developed for the prediction of white spruce cone crops in the Canadian boreal forest and has the surprising result that weather conditions 2 years prior to the cone crop are the most significant predictors. Article in Journal/Newspaper Alaska Yukon Canadian Science Publishing Botany 90 2 113 119 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Canadian Science Publishing |
op_collection_id |
crcansciencepubl |
language |
English |
description |
White spruce ( Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) cone crops were measured from 1986 to 2011 in the Kluane region of southwestern Yukon to test the hypothesis that the size of cone crops could be predicted from spring and summer temperature and rainfall of years t, t – 1, and t – 2. We counted cones in the top 3 m of an average of 700 white spruce trees each year spread over 3–14 sites along 210 km of the Alaska Highway and the Haines Highway. We tested the conventional explanation for white spruce cone crops that implicates summer temperatures and rainfall in years t and t – 1 and rejected it, since it explained very little of the variation in our 26 years of data. We used exploratory data analysis with robust multiple regressions coupled with Akaike’s information criterion corrected (AIC c ) analysis to determine the best statistical model to predict the size of cone crops. We could statistically explain 54% of the variation in cone crops from July and August temperatures of years t – 1 and t – 2 and May precipitation of year t – 2. There was no indication of a periodicity in cone crops, and years of large cone crops were synchronous over the Kluane region with few exceptions. This is the first quantitative model developed for the prediction of white spruce cone crops in the Canadian boreal forest and has the surprising result that weather conditions 2 years prior to the cone crop are the most significant predictors. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Krebs, C.J. LaMontagne, J.M. Kenney, A.J. Boutin, S. |
spellingShingle |
Krebs, C.J. LaMontagne, J.M. Kenney, A.J. Boutin, S. Climatic determinants of white spruce cone crops in the boreal forest of southwestern Yukon |
author_facet |
Krebs, C.J. LaMontagne, J.M. Kenney, A.J. Boutin, S. |
author_sort |
Krebs, C.J. |
title |
Climatic determinants of white spruce cone crops in the boreal forest of southwestern Yukon |
title_short |
Climatic determinants of white spruce cone crops in the boreal forest of southwestern Yukon |
title_full |
Climatic determinants of white spruce cone crops in the boreal forest of southwestern Yukon |
title_fullStr |
Climatic determinants of white spruce cone crops in the boreal forest of southwestern Yukon |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climatic determinants of white spruce cone crops in the boreal forest of southwestern Yukon |
title_sort |
climatic determinants of white spruce cone crops in the boreal forest of southwestern yukon |
publisher |
Canadian Science Publishing |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/b11-088 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/full-xml/10.1139/b11-088 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/b11-088 |
genre |
Alaska Yukon |
genre_facet |
Alaska Yukon |
op_source |
Botany volume 90, issue 2, page 113-119 ISSN 1916-2790 1916-2804 |
op_rights |
http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/page/about/CorporateTextAndDataMining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1139/b11-088 |
container_title |
Botany |
container_volume |
90 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
113 |
op_container_end_page |
119 |
_version_ |
1810485901919256576 |