Initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost
Equilibrium modelling, also known as spin-up, is a technique for initializing a stable thermal regime in ground temperature models for permafrost regions. The results act as a baseline for subsequent transient analyses of ground temperature response to climate change or infrastructure. In practice,...
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crcansciencepubl:10.1139/as-2021-0013 2024-09-15T17:49:58+00:00 Initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost Ross, Cameron Siemens, Greg Beddoe, Ryley LafreniȲre, Melissa 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/as-2021-0013 https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/full-xml/10.1139/as-2021-0013 https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/as-2021-0013 en eng Canadian Science Publishing http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/page/about/CorporateTextAndDataMining Arctic Science volume 8, issue 2, page 362-394 ISSN 2368-7460 2368-7460 journal-article 2022 crcansciencepubl https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2021-0013 2024-08-01T04:10:01Z Equilibrium modelling, also known as spin-up, is a technique for initializing a stable thermal regime in ground temperature models for permafrost regions. The results act as a baseline for subsequent transient analyses of ground temperature response to climate change or infrastructure. In practice, spin-up procedures are often loosely described or neglected, and the criteria by which a stable thermal regime is evaluated are rarely defined or presented explicitly. In this paper, model results show that no single criterion based on thresholds of inter-cycle temperature change can be used to identify a stable thermal regime in all spin-up scenarios. Results from simulations using a wide range of initialization temperatures and conditions show the number of spin-up cycles can range between 10 and 10 000, and a spin-up criterion as fine as 0.00001 °C/cycle is required to achieve a stable thermal regime suitable for deeper warm permafrost models. The implications of selected threshold criteria are examined in follow-up transient analyses and show that warm permafrost models can be highly sensitive to initial temperature profiles based on the criterion used. The results alert scientists and engineers to the importance of initialization on site-specific and regional permafrost models for transient ground temperature analyses. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic permafrost Canadian Science Publishing Arctic Science 1 33 |
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Open Polar |
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Canadian Science Publishing |
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crcansciencepubl |
language |
English |
description |
Equilibrium modelling, also known as spin-up, is a technique for initializing a stable thermal regime in ground temperature models for permafrost regions. The results act as a baseline for subsequent transient analyses of ground temperature response to climate change or infrastructure. In practice, spin-up procedures are often loosely described or neglected, and the criteria by which a stable thermal regime is evaluated are rarely defined or presented explicitly. In this paper, model results show that no single criterion based on thresholds of inter-cycle temperature change can be used to identify a stable thermal regime in all spin-up scenarios. Results from simulations using a wide range of initialization temperatures and conditions show the number of spin-up cycles can range between 10 and 10 000, and a spin-up criterion as fine as 0.00001 °C/cycle is required to achieve a stable thermal regime suitable for deeper warm permafrost models. The implications of selected threshold criteria are examined in follow-up transient analyses and show that warm permafrost models can be highly sensitive to initial temperature profiles based on the criterion used. The results alert scientists and engineers to the importance of initialization on site-specific and regional permafrost models for transient ground temperature analyses. |
author2 |
LafreniȲre, Melissa |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ross, Cameron Siemens, Greg Beddoe, Ryley |
spellingShingle |
Ross, Cameron Siemens, Greg Beddoe, Ryley Initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost |
author_facet |
Ross, Cameron Siemens, Greg Beddoe, Ryley |
author_sort |
Ross, Cameron |
title |
Initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost |
title_short |
Initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost |
title_full |
Initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost |
title_fullStr |
Initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost |
title_full_unstemmed |
Initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost |
title_sort |
initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost |
publisher |
Canadian Science Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/as-2021-0013 https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/full-xml/10.1139/as-2021-0013 https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/as-2021-0013 |
genre |
Arctic permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic permafrost |
op_source |
Arctic Science volume 8, issue 2, page 362-394 ISSN 2368-7460 2368-7460 |
op_rights |
http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/page/about/CorporateTextAndDataMining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2021-0013 |
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Arctic Science |
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1 |
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33 |
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1810291811263971328 |