How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula?
Abstract The upward evolution of temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula has weakened and even reversed in the last two decades. Due to the long-term variability in the region it is not easy to assess whether recent cooling trends are consistent with the internal variability or not. For this reason,...
Published in: | Antarctic Science |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0954102018000251 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0954102018000251 |
id |
crcambridgeupr:10.1017/s0954102018000251 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crcambridgeupr:10.1017/s0954102018000251 2024-09-15T17:41:26+00:00 How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula? Gonzalez, Sergi Fortuny, Didac 2018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0954102018000251 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0954102018000251 en eng Cambridge University Press (CUP) https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms Antarctic Science volume 30, issue 5, page 322-328 ISSN 0954-1020 1365-2079 journal-article 2018 crcambridgeupr https://doi.org/10.1017/s0954102018000251 2024-07-03T04:03:51Z Abstract The upward evolution of temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula has weakened and even reversed in the last two decades. Due to the long-term variability in the region it is not easy to assess whether recent cooling trends are consistent with the internal variability or not. For this reason, this paper assesses the robustness of the trends by analysing their sensitivity with respect to the period selected. Every possible temperature trend in the interval 1958–2016 has been calculated and displayed in a two-dimensional parameter diagram. The results suggest that the warming observed in the Antarctic Peninsula since 1958 is quite robust, as all periods longer than 30 years exhibit statistically significant changes, especially in summer (with lower magnitude and higher significance) and autumn and winter (with larger magnitude and lower significance). Periods shorter than 30 years exhibit alternations of warming and cooling periods, and therefore do not represent robust trends even if they are statistically significant. Consequently, the recent 20-year cooling trend cannot be considered at the moment as evidence of a shift in the overall sign of the trend. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctic Science Cambridge University Press Antarctic Science 30 5 322 328 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Cambridge University Press |
op_collection_id |
crcambridgeupr |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract The upward evolution of temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula has weakened and even reversed in the last two decades. Due to the long-term variability in the region it is not easy to assess whether recent cooling trends are consistent with the internal variability or not. For this reason, this paper assesses the robustness of the trends by analysing their sensitivity with respect to the period selected. Every possible temperature trend in the interval 1958–2016 has been calculated and displayed in a two-dimensional parameter diagram. The results suggest that the warming observed in the Antarctic Peninsula since 1958 is quite robust, as all periods longer than 30 years exhibit statistically significant changes, especially in summer (with lower magnitude and higher significance) and autumn and winter (with larger magnitude and lower significance). Periods shorter than 30 years exhibit alternations of warming and cooling periods, and therefore do not represent robust trends even if they are statistically significant. Consequently, the recent 20-year cooling trend cannot be considered at the moment as evidence of a shift in the overall sign of the trend. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gonzalez, Sergi Fortuny, Didac |
spellingShingle |
Gonzalez, Sergi Fortuny, Didac How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula? |
author_facet |
Gonzalez, Sergi Fortuny, Didac |
author_sort |
Gonzalez, Sergi |
title |
How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula? |
title_short |
How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula? |
title_full |
How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula? |
title_fullStr |
How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula? |
title_full_unstemmed |
How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula? |
title_sort |
how robust are the temperature trends on the antarctic peninsula? |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press (CUP) |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0954102018000251 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0954102018000251 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctic Science |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctic Science |
op_source |
Antarctic Science volume 30, issue 5, page 322-328 ISSN 0954-1020 1365-2079 |
op_rights |
https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/s0954102018000251 |
container_title |
Antarctic Science |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
322 |
op_container_end_page |
328 |
_version_ |
1810487607096770560 |