A comparison of Arctic and Antarctic climate change, present and future
Abstract Ongoing climate variations in the Arctic and Antarctic pose an apparent paradox. In contrast to the large warming and loss of sea ice in the Arctic in recent decades, Antarctic temperatures and sea ice show little change except for the Antarctic Peninsula. However, model simulations indicat...
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2009
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0954102009001874 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0954102009001874 |
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crcambridgeupr:10.1017/s0954102009001874 2024-04-28T08:00:21+00:00 A comparison of Arctic and Antarctic climate change, present and future Walsh, John E. 2009 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0954102009001874 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0954102009001874 en eng Cambridge University Press (CUP) https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms Antarctic Science volume 21, issue 3, page 179-188 ISSN 0954-1020 1365-2079 Geology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography journal-article 2009 crcambridgeupr https://doi.org/10.1017/s0954102009001874 2024-04-09T06:55:54Z Abstract Ongoing climate variations in the Arctic and Antarctic pose an apparent paradox. In contrast to the large warming and loss of sea ice in the Arctic in recent decades, Antarctic temperatures and sea ice show little change except for the Antarctic Peninsula. However, model simulations indicate that the Arctic changes have been shaped largely by low-frequency variations of the atmospheric circulation, superimposed on a greenhouse warming that is apparent in model simulations when ensemble averages smooth out the circulation-driven variability of the late 20th century. By contrast, the Antarctic changes of recent decades appear to be shaped by ozone depletion and an associated strengthening of the southern annular mode of the atmospheric circulation. While the signature of greenhouse-driven change is projected to emerge from the natural variability during the present century, the emergence of a statistically significant greenhouse signal may be slower than in other regions. Models suggest that feedbacks from retreating sea ice will make autumn and winter the seasons of the earliest emergence of the greenhouse signal in both Polar Regions. Priorities for enhanced robustness of the Antarctic climate simulations are the inclusion of ozone chemistry and the realistic simulation of water vapour over the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctic Science Arctic Climate change Ice Sheet Sea ice Cambridge University Press Antarctic Science 21 3 179 188 |
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Open Polar |
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Cambridge University Press |
op_collection_id |
crcambridgeupr |
language |
English |
topic |
Geology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
Geology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography Walsh, John E. A comparison of Arctic and Antarctic climate change, present and future |
topic_facet |
Geology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography |
description |
Abstract Ongoing climate variations in the Arctic and Antarctic pose an apparent paradox. In contrast to the large warming and loss of sea ice in the Arctic in recent decades, Antarctic temperatures and sea ice show little change except for the Antarctic Peninsula. However, model simulations indicate that the Arctic changes have been shaped largely by low-frequency variations of the atmospheric circulation, superimposed on a greenhouse warming that is apparent in model simulations when ensemble averages smooth out the circulation-driven variability of the late 20th century. By contrast, the Antarctic changes of recent decades appear to be shaped by ozone depletion and an associated strengthening of the southern annular mode of the atmospheric circulation. While the signature of greenhouse-driven change is projected to emerge from the natural variability during the present century, the emergence of a statistically significant greenhouse signal may be slower than in other regions. Models suggest that feedbacks from retreating sea ice will make autumn and winter the seasons of the earliest emergence of the greenhouse signal in both Polar Regions. Priorities for enhanced robustness of the Antarctic climate simulations are the inclusion of ozone chemistry and the realistic simulation of water vapour over the Antarctic Ice Sheet. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Walsh, John E. |
author_facet |
Walsh, John E. |
author_sort |
Walsh, John E. |
title |
A comparison of Arctic and Antarctic climate change, present and future |
title_short |
A comparison of Arctic and Antarctic climate change, present and future |
title_full |
A comparison of Arctic and Antarctic climate change, present and future |
title_fullStr |
A comparison of Arctic and Antarctic climate change, present and future |
title_full_unstemmed |
A comparison of Arctic and Antarctic climate change, present and future |
title_sort |
comparison of arctic and antarctic climate change, present and future |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press (CUP) |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0954102009001874 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0954102009001874 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctic Science Arctic Climate change Ice Sheet Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctic Science Arctic Climate change Ice Sheet Sea ice |
op_source |
Antarctic Science volume 21, issue 3, page 179-188 ISSN 0954-1020 1365-2079 |
op_rights |
https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/s0954102009001874 |
container_title |
Antarctic Science |
container_volume |
21 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
179 |
op_container_end_page |
188 |
_version_ |
1797572621006536704 |