Probabilistic Analysis of the Impact of Vessel Speed Restrictions on Navigational Safety: Accounting for the Right Whale Rule
The Right Whale Sighting Advisory System (RWSAS) is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries program designed to reduce collisions between vessels and critically endangered North Atlantic right whales. The vessel speed restriction that is part of the RWSAS presents navigati...
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2017
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0373463317000480 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0373463317000480 |
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crcambridgeupr:10.1017/s0373463317000480 2024-04-07T07:54:29+00:00 Probabilistic Analysis of the Impact of Vessel Speed Restrictions on Navigational Safety: Accounting for the Right Whale Rule Convertino, Matteo Valverde, L. James 2017 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0373463317000480 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0373463317000480 en eng Cambridge University Press (CUP) https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms Journal of Navigation volume 71, issue 1, page 65-82 ISSN 0373-4633 1469-7785 Ocean Engineering Oceanography journal-article 2017 crcambridgeupr https://doi.org/10.1017/s0373463317000480 2024-03-08T00:34:31Z The Right Whale Sighting Advisory System (RWSAS) is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries program designed to reduce collisions between vessels and critically endangered North Atlantic right whales. The vessel speed restriction that is part of the RWSAS presents navigation stakeholders with numerous challenges, owing to concerns about increased risks of ship grounding and collisions within ports. In this paper, we present a multi-methodology framework for assessing the impact of the vessel speed restriction on navigational safety. Empirically, we base our discussion in a first-order analysis of ship grounding risk for the Charleston Entrance Channel. Our analysis proceeds in three parts. We begin by using fault and event tree analyses to assess a relevant set of grounding-related event progression and failure probabilities. The influence of alternative vessel speed restrictions on ship grounding risk are then explored via a Bayesian network model that utilises the previously specified fault and event tree models for its partial specification and enumeration. Our analysis suggests that the speed restriction can, under certain reasonable assumptions, be seen to adversely impact the risk of ship grounding accidents in the Charleston Entrance Channel. We conclude with a summary of our findings and recommendations for future research. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Cambridge University Press Journal of Navigation 71 1 65 82 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Cambridge University Press |
op_collection_id |
crcambridgeupr |
language |
English |
topic |
Ocean Engineering Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
Ocean Engineering Oceanography Convertino, Matteo Valverde, L. James Probabilistic Analysis of the Impact of Vessel Speed Restrictions on Navigational Safety: Accounting for the Right Whale Rule |
topic_facet |
Ocean Engineering Oceanography |
description |
The Right Whale Sighting Advisory System (RWSAS) is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries program designed to reduce collisions between vessels and critically endangered North Atlantic right whales. The vessel speed restriction that is part of the RWSAS presents navigation stakeholders with numerous challenges, owing to concerns about increased risks of ship grounding and collisions within ports. In this paper, we present a multi-methodology framework for assessing the impact of the vessel speed restriction on navigational safety. Empirically, we base our discussion in a first-order analysis of ship grounding risk for the Charleston Entrance Channel. Our analysis proceeds in three parts. We begin by using fault and event tree analyses to assess a relevant set of grounding-related event progression and failure probabilities. The influence of alternative vessel speed restrictions on ship grounding risk are then explored via a Bayesian network model that utilises the previously specified fault and event tree models for its partial specification and enumeration. Our analysis suggests that the speed restriction can, under certain reasonable assumptions, be seen to adversely impact the risk of ship grounding accidents in the Charleston Entrance Channel. We conclude with a summary of our findings and recommendations for future research. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Convertino, Matteo Valverde, L. James |
author_facet |
Convertino, Matteo Valverde, L. James |
author_sort |
Convertino, Matteo |
title |
Probabilistic Analysis of the Impact of Vessel Speed Restrictions on Navigational Safety: Accounting for the Right Whale Rule |
title_short |
Probabilistic Analysis of the Impact of Vessel Speed Restrictions on Navigational Safety: Accounting for the Right Whale Rule |
title_full |
Probabilistic Analysis of the Impact of Vessel Speed Restrictions on Navigational Safety: Accounting for the Right Whale Rule |
title_fullStr |
Probabilistic Analysis of the Impact of Vessel Speed Restrictions on Navigational Safety: Accounting for the Right Whale Rule |
title_full_unstemmed |
Probabilistic Analysis of the Impact of Vessel Speed Restrictions on Navigational Safety: Accounting for the Right Whale Rule |
title_sort |
probabilistic analysis of the impact of vessel speed restrictions on navigational safety: accounting for the right whale rule |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press (CUP) |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0373463317000480 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0373463317000480 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Journal of Navigation volume 71, issue 1, page 65-82 ISSN 0373-4633 1469-7785 |
op_rights |
https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/s0373463317000480 |
container_title |
Journal of Navigation |
container_volume |
71 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
65 |
op_container_end_page |
82 |
_version_ |
1795671053063684096 |