Computations of the Possible Future Behaviour of Berendon Glacier, Canada

• Published in: Journal of Glaciology
• Main Authors: Untersteiner, N., Nye, J. F.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Cambridge University Press (CUP) 1968
• Subjects: Earth-Surface Processes; Canada; British Columbia; Berendon Glacier; Journal of Glaciology
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022143000031002; https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143000031002

If the surface of Berendon Glacier, British Columbia, Canada, rose by 19 m above its 1963 level at a certain point near the terminus it would reach the entrance to a mining tunnel. Computations are made to see whether this is likely in the near future. We calculate the changes in mass balance that would be necessary to make the glacier, which is now retreating, start to advance and reach the tunnel in 40 years and 20 years respectively. The method fits polynomials to the advance—retreat data and then uses the λ coefficients of Nye (1963[b]) to infer the corresponding mass balance behaviour. It is concluded that if the mean mass balance should increase smoothly to +70 cm/year, which is a high but possible value, by the year 2003, the ice would reach the tunnel portal in 2003. But, even assuming a rather drastic deterioration in the climate in the future and a concomitant increase of the mean mass balance, the ice will not reach the tunnel portal within the next 20 years.