Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change

• Published in: Journal of Glaciology
• Main Authors: Bevan, Suzanne, Cornford, Stephen, Gilbert, Lin, Otosaka, Inés, Martin, Daniel, Surawy-Stepney, Trystan
• Other Authors: Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Cambridge University Press (CUP) 2023
• Subjects: Earth-Surface Processes; Antarctic; Amundsen Sea; West Antarctic Ice Sheet; Antarc*; Ice Sheet; Journal of Glaciology
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.57; https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143023000576

Abstract Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively.