Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change
Abstract Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and e...
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Cambridge University Press (CUP)
2023
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.57 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143023000576 |
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crcambridgeupr:10.1017/jog.2023.57 2024-03-03T08:36:36+00:00 Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change Bevan, Suzanne Cornford, Stephen Gilbert, Lin Otosaka, Inés Martin, Daniel Surawy-Stepney, Trystan Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.57 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143023000576 en eng Cambridge University Press (CUP) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Journal of Glaciology page 1-11 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 Earth-Surface Processes journal-article 2023 crcambridgeupr https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.57 2024-02-08T08:29:18Z Abstract Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology Cambridge University Press Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology 1 11 |
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Open Polar |
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Cambridge University Press |
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crcambridgeupr |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth-Surface Processes |
spellingShingle |
Earth-Surface Processes Bevan, Suzanne Cornford, Stephen Gilbert, Lin Otosaka, Inés Martin, Daniel Surawy-Stepney, Trystan Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change |
topic_facet |
Earth-Surface Processes |
description |
Abstract Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively. |
author2 |
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bevan, Suzanne Cornford, Stephen Gilbert, Lin Otosaka, Inés Martin, Daniel Surawy-Stepney, Trystan |
author_facet |
Bevan, Suzanne Cornford, Stephen Gilbert, Lin Otosaka, Inés Martin, Daniel Surawy-Stepney, Trystan |
author_sort |
Bevan, Suzanne |
title |
Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change |
title_short |
Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change |
title_full |
Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change |
title_fullStr |
Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change |
title_sort |
amundsen sea embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press (CUP) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.57 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143023000576 |
geographic |
Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology page 1-11 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.57 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
11 |
_version_ |
1792494435041280000 |