Model insights into bed control on retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica
Abstract Thwaites Glacier (TG) plays an important role in future sea-level rise (SLR) contribution from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent observations show that TG is losing mass, and its grounding zone is retreating. Previous modeling has produced a wide range of results concerning whether, when...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.13 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143023000138 |
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crcambridgeupr:10.1017/jog.2023.13 2024-03-03T08:39:18+00:00 Model insights into bed control on retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica Schwans, Emily Parizek, Byron R. Alley, Richard B. Anandakrishnan, Sridhar Morlighem, Mathieu M. National Science Foundation National Science Foundation National Science Foundation 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.13 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143023000138 en eng Cambridge University Press (CUP) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Journal of Glaciology volume 69, issue 277, page 1241-1259 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 Earth-Surface Processes journal-article 2023 crcambridgeupr https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.13 2024-02-08T08:32:59Z Abstract Thwaites Glacier (TG) plays an important role in future sea-level rise (SLR) contribution from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent observations show that TG is losing mass, and its grounding zone is retreating. Previous modeling has produced a wide range of results concerning whether, when, and how rapidly further retreat will occur under continued warming. These differences arise at least in part from ill-constrained processes, including friction from the bed, and future atmosphere and ocean forcing affecting ice-shelf and grounding-zone buttressing. Here, we apply the Ice Sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) with a range of specifications of basal sliding behavior in response to varying ocean forcing. We find that basin-wide bed character strongly affects TG's response to sub-shelf melt by modulating how changes in driving stress are balanced by the bed as the glacier responds to external forcing. Resulting differences in dynamic thinning patterns alter modeled grounding-line retreat across Thwaites' catchment, affecting both modeled rates and magnitudes of SLR contribution from this critical sector of the ice sheet. Bed character introduces large uncertainties in projections of TG under equal external forcing, pointing to this as a crucial constraint needed in predictive models of West Antarctica. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Journal of Glaciology Thwaites Glacier West Antarctica Cambridge University Press Antarctic West Antarctica West Antarctic Ice Sheet Thwaites Glacier ENVELOPE(-106.750,-106.750,-75.500,-75.500) Journal of Glaciology 69 277 1241 1259 |
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Open Polar |
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Cambridge University Press |
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crcambridgeupr |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth-Surface Processes |
spellingShingle |
Earth-Surface Processes Schwans, Emily Parizek, Byron R. Alley, Richard B. Anandakrishnan, Sridhar Morlighem, Mathieu M. Model insights into bed control on retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica |
topic_facet |
Earth-Surface Processes |
description |
Abstract Thwaites Glacier (TG) plays an important role in future sea-level rise (SLR) contribution from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent observations show that TG is losing mass, and its grounding zone is retreating. Previous modeling has produced a wide range of results concerning whether, when, and how rapidly further retreat will occur under continued warming. These differences arise at least in part from ill-constrained processes, including friction from the bed, and future atmosphere and ocean forcing affecting ice-shelf and grounding-zone buttressing. Here, we apply the Ice Sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) with a range of specifications of basal sliding behavior in response to varying ocean forcing. We find that basin-wide bed character strongly affects TG's response to sub-shelf melt by modulating how changes in driving stress are balanced by the bed as the glacier responds to external forcing. Resulting differences in dynamic thinning patterns alter modeled grounding-line retreat across Thwaites' catchment, affecting both modeled rates and magnitudes of SLR contribution from this critical sector of the ice sheet. Bed character introduces large uncertainties in projections of TG under equal external forcing, pointing to this as a crucial constraint needed in predictive models of West Antarctica. |
author2 |
National Science Foundation National Science Foundation National Science Foundation |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schwans, Emily Parizek, Byron R. Alley, Richard B. Anandakrishnan, Sridhar Morlighem, Mathieu M. |
author_facet |
Schwans, Emily Parizek, Byron R. Alley, Richard B. Anandakrishnan, Sridhar Morlighem, Mathieu M. |
author_sort |
Schwans, Emily |
title |
Model insights into bed control on retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_short |
Model insights into bed control on retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_full |
Model insights into bed control on retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_fullStr |
Model insights into bed control on retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_full_unstemmed |
Model insights into bed control on retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_sort |
model insights into bed control on retreat of thwaites glacier, west antarctica |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press (CUP) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.13 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143023000138 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-106.750,-106.750,-75.500,-75.500) |
geographic |
Antarctic West Antarctica West Antarctic Ice Sheet Thwaites Glacier |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic West Antarctica West Antarctic Ice Sheet Thwaites Glacier |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Journal of Glaciology Thwaites Glacier West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Journal of Glaciology Thwaites Glacier West Antarctica |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology volume 69, issue 277, page 1241-1259 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.13 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
69 |
container_issue |
277 |
container_start_page |
1241 |
op_container_end_page |
1259 |
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1792494780784050176 |