Empirical α – β runout modelling of snow avalanches in the Catalan Pyrenees
Abstract A variation in the α − β model which is a regression model that allows a deterministic prediction of the extreme runout to be expected in a given path, was applied for calculating avalanche runout in the Catalan Pyrenees. Present knowledge of major avalanche activity in this region and curr...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.50 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143021000502 |
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crcambridgeupr:10.1017/jog.2021.50 2024-03-03T08:46:07+00:00 Empirical α – β runout modelling of snow avalanches in the Catalan Pyrenees Oller, Pere Baeza, Cristina Furdada, Glòria 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.50 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143021000502 en eng Cambridge University Press (CUP) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Journal of Glaciology volume 67, issue 266, page 1043-1054 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 Earth-Surface Processes journal-article 2021 crcambridgeupr https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.50 2024-02-08T08:43:13Z Abstract A variation in the α − β model which is a regression model that allows a deterministic prediction of the extreme runout to be expected in a given path, was applied for calculating avalanche runout in the Catalan Pyrenees. Present knowledge of major avalanche activity in this region and current mapping tools were used. The model was derived using a dataset of 97 ‘extreme’ avalanches that occurred from the end of 19th century to the beginning of 21st century. A multiple linear regression model was obtained using three independent variables: inclination of the avalanche path, horizontal length and area of the starting zone, with a good fit of the function ( R 2 = 0.81). A larger starting zone increases the runout and a larger length of the path reduces the runout. The new updated equation predicts avalanche runout for a return period of ~100 years. To study which terrain variables explain the extreme values of the avalanche dataset, a comparative analysis of variables that influence a longer or shorter runout was performed. The most extreme avalanches were treated. The size of the avalanche path and the aspect of the starting zone showed certain association between avalanches with longer or shorter runouts. Article in Journal/Newspaper Journal of Glaciology Cambridge University Press Journal of Glaciology 1 12 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Cambridge University Press |
op_collection_id |
crcambridgeupr |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth-Surface Processes |
spellingShingle |
Earth-Surface Processes Oller, Pere Baeza, Cristina Furdada, Glòria Empirical α – β runout modelling of snow avalanches in the Catalan Pyrenees |
topic_facet |
Earth-Surface Processes |
description |
Abstract A variation in the α − β model which is a regression model that allows a deterministic prediction of the extreme runout to be expected in a given path, was applied for calculating avalanche runout in the Catalan Pyrenees. Present knowledge of major avalanche activity in this region and current mapping tools were used. The model was derived using a dataset of 97 ‘extreme’ avalanches that occurred from the end of 19th century to the beginning of 21st century. A multiple linear regression model was obtained using three independent variables: inclination of the avalanche path, horizontal length and area of the starting zone, with a good fit of the function ( R 2 = 0.81). A larger starting zone increases the runout and a larger length of the path reduces the runout. The new updated equation predicts avalanche runout for a return period of ~100 years. To study which terrain variables explain the extreme values of the avalanche dataset, a comparative analysis of variables that influence a longer or shorter runout was performed. The most extreme avalanches were treated. The size of the avalanche path and the aspect of the starting zone showed certain association between avalanches with longer or shorter runouts. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Oller, Pere Baeza, Cristina Furdada, Glòria |
author_facet |
Oller, Pere Baeza, Cristina Furdada, Glòria |
author_sort |
Oller, Pere |
title |
Empirical α – β runout modelling of snow avalanches in the Catalan Pyrenees |
title_short |
Empirical α – β runout modelling of snow avalanches in the Catalan Pyrenees |
title_full |
Empirical α – β runout modelling of snow avalanches in the Catalan Pyrenees |
title_fullStr |
Empirical α – β runout modelling of snow avalanches in the Catalan Pyrenees |
title_full_unstemmed |
Empirical α – β runout modelling of snow avalanches in the Catalan Pyrenees |
title_sort |
empirical α – β runout modelling of snow avalanches in the catalan pyrenees |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press (CUP) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.50 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143021000502 |
genre |
Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology volume 67, issue 266, page 1043-1054 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.50 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_start_page |
1 |
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12 |
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1792502033699307520 |